Predictions / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Niederrhein / Meerbusch vs Biemenhorst

Prediction Audit: Meerbusch vs Biemenhorst Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Meerbusch Meerbusch
May 10, 2026 - 13:00
4 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 40%
Biemenhorst Biemenhorst

AI correctly predicted the Meerbusch win.

The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Meerbusch Meerbusch ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Meerbusch win 4–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 04, 2026 · 01:46 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Meerbusch 1.45 — Biemenhorst 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Meerbusch win · 4–2
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 17:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1622096

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Meerbusch win · Meerbusch 4–2 Biemenhorst
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Oberliga - Niederrhein
  • Fixture: Meerbusch vs Biemenhorst
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Meerbusch 1.45 — Biemenhorst 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 26.9% · Over 2.5 73.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 61.3% · No 38.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 61.3% · No 38.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Niederrhein Oberliga - Niederrhein — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hilden 34 22 3 9 69
2 Germania Ratingen 34 19 10 5 67
3 KFC Uerdingen 05 34 19 6 9 63
4 Schonnebeck 34 17 10 7 61
5 SC St. Tönis 34 16 7 11 55
6 Meerbusch 34 15 5 14 50
7 BW Dingden 34 12 9 13 45
8 Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. 34 11 11 12 44
9 SF Baumberg 34 12 8 14 44
10 SW Essen 34 13 5 16 44
11 Monheim 34 12 7 15 43
12 Sonsbeck 34 12 6 16 42
13 Büderich 34 12 6 15 42
14 Union Frintrop 34 12 5 17 41
15 Holzheimer SG 34 10 11 13 41
16 Kleve 34 11 8 15 41
17 Homberg 34 10 6 18 36
18 Biemenhorst 34 8 3 23 27
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hilden 34 90 48 +42 69
2 Germania Ratingen 34 86 48 +38 67
3 Schonnebeck 34 81 47 +34 61
4 SC St. Tönis 34 80 55 +25 55
5 Büderich 34 62 77 -15 42
6 KFC Uerdingen 05 34 58 43 +15 63
7 SF Baumberg 34 58 66 -8 44
8 Union Frintrop 34 57 57 0 41
9 Biemenhorst 34 55 106 -51 27
10 SW Essen 34 53 62 -9 44
11 Homberg 34 51 61 -10 36
12 Meerbusch 34 49 60 -11 50
13 Holzheimer SG 34 49 62 -13 41
14 Monheim 34 48 56 -8 43
15 Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. 34 47 42 +5 44
16 Sonsbeck 34 47 59 -12 42
17 BW Dingden 34 45 48 -3 45
18 Kleve 34 43 62 -19 41
Oberliga - Niederrhein Germany. Oberliga - Niederrhein Predictions