The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Hearts U21 at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Hearts U21 Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Hearts U21; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Hearts U21 1.49 — Gretna 2008 1.23
-
Mar 06, 2026 · 19:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Hearts U21 1–1 Gretna 2008
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Football League - Lowland League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linlithgow Rose | 34 | 24 | 3 | 7 | 75 |
| 2 | Clydebank | 34 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 73 |
| 3 | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 69 |
| 4 | Tranent Juniors | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 67 |
| 5 | Caledonian Braves | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 59 |
| 6 | Cumbernauld Colts | 34 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 56 |
| 7 | Broxburn Athletic | 33 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 49 |
| 8 | Bo'ness United | 34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 48 |
| 9 | Berwick Rangers | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 46 |
| 10 | Cowdenbeath | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 45 |
| 11 | Celtic II | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 45 |
| 12 | Gala Fairydean Rovers | 34 | 13 | 3 | 18 | 42 |
| 13 | Albion Rovers | 34 | 12 | 3 | 19 | 39 |
| 14 | Civil Service Strollers | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 38 |
| 15 | Stirling University | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 37 |
| 16 | Hearts U21 | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 29 |
| 17 | Gretna 2008 | 34 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 28 |
| 18 | East Stirlingshire | 34 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 18 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clydebank | 34 | 94 | 39 | +55 | 73 |
| 2 | Linlithgow Rose | 34 | 89 | 39 | +50 | 75 |
| 3 | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | 34 | 79 | 42 | +37 | 69 |
| 4 | Caledonian Braves | 34 | 75 | 48 | +27 | 59 |
| 5 | Cumbernauld Colts | 34 | 72 | 53 | +19 | 56 |
| 6 | Celtic II | 34 | 72 | 71 | +1 | 45 |
| 7 | Broxburn Athletic | 33 | 64 | 60 | +4 | 49 |
| 8 | Tranent Juniors | 34 | 63 | 32 | +31 | 67 |
| 9 | Berwick Rangers | 33 | 61 | 68 | -7 | 46 |
| 10 | Bo'ness United | 34 | 60 | 56 | +4 | 48 |
| 11 | Stirling University | 35 | 60 | 84 | -24 | 37 |
| 12 | Gala Fairydean Rovers | 34 | 52 | 65 | -13 | 42 |
| 13 | Cowdenbeath | 33 | 51 | 50 | +1 | 45 |
| 14 | Gretna 2008 | 34 | 50 | 90 | -40 | 28 |
| 15 | Albion Rovers | 34 | 48 | 71 | -23 | 39 |
| 16 | East Stirlingshire | 34 | 48 | 94 | -46 | 18 |
| 17 | Hearts U21 | 34 | 42 | 77 | -35 | 29 |
| 18 | Civil Service Strollers | 34 | 42 | 83 | -41 | 38 |
