Predictions / Football / Malaysia. Super League / Kelantan United vs Johor Darul Takzim FC

Prediction Audit: Kelantan United vs Johor Darul Takzim FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kelantan United Kelantan United
May 10, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.45
14 1.25
xG Accuracy: 3%
Johor Darul Takzim FC Johor Darul Takzim FC

The model missed the final outcome (Johor Darul Takzim FC win 1–14).

The model had projected Kelantan United at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (15 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Johor Darul Takzim FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-3, 0-2, 0-4, 0-1, 1-3 1-14 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 15 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Johor Darul Takzim FC
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Johor Darul Takzim FC win 1–14, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 04, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Kelantan United 1.45 — Johor Darul Takzim FC 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Johor Darul Takzim FC win · 1–14
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3183755

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds 2.39
CLV Pending
Final Result Johor Darul Takzim FC win · Kelantan United 1–14 Johor Darul Takzim FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: Kelantan United vs Johor Darul Takzim FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): Kelantan United 1.45 — Johor Darul Takzim FC 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 26.1% · Over 2.5 73.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 50.0% · No 50.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 50.0% · No 50.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-3 (12.7%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Johor Darul Takzim FC 24 23 1 0 70
2 Kuching FA 24 16 5 3 53
3 Selangor 24 16 4 4 52
4 Kuala Lumpur FA 24 12 7 5 43
5 Terengganu 24 10 6 8 36
6 Imigresen 24 9 5 10 32
7 Negeri Sembilan 24 6 11 7 29
8 Penang 24 6 7 11 25
9 Sabah FA 24 5 8 11 23
10 DPMM FC 24 6 5 13 23
11 Melaka 24 4 7 13 19
12 Kelantan United 24 4 3 17 15
13 Pdrm 24 2 5 17 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Johor Darul Takzim FC 24 117 10 +107 70
2 Selangor 24 59 20 +39 52
3 Kuching FA 24 45 14 +31 53
4 Kuala Lumpur FA 24 40 29 +11 43
5 Terengganu 24 39 34 +5 36
6 Negeri Sembilan 24 39 35 +4 29
7 Imigresen 24 38 43 -5 32
8 DPMM FC 24 30 57 -27 23
9 Sabah FA 24 29 44 -15 23
10 Penang 24 26 41 -15 25
11 Melaka 24 18 45 -27 19
12 Kelantan United 24 17 63 -46 15
13 Pdrm 24 17 79 -62 11