Predictions / Football / Malaysia. Super League / Terengganu vs Imigresen

Prediction Audit: Terengganu vs Imigresen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Terengganu Terengganu
May 08, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Imigresen Imigresen

The model missed the final outcome (Imigresen win 1–3).

The model had projected Terengganu at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Terengganu Imigresen ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Terengganu higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Terengganu -20.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Terengganu 41.8% 61.9% -20.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 20.6% +5.1 pp Model Higher
Imigresen 32.6% 17.5% +15.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Terengganu's win probability at 61.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 20.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Imigresen win 1–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Terengganu by 20.1 percentage points (61.9% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 08, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Terengganu 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Imigresen 32.6%
    • xG · Terengganu 1.45 — Imigresen 1.25
  2. May 08, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Terengganu 1.48 · Draw 4.45 · Imigresen 5.22
    • Implied 1X2 · Terengganu 61.9% · Draw 20.6% · Imigresen 17.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 08, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Terengganu 1.48 · Draw 4.45 · Imigresen 5.22
    • Implied 1X2 · Terengganu 61.9% · Draw 20.6% · Imigresen 17.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 08, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Imigresen win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 17:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1478041

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Imigresen win · Terengganu 1–3 Imigresen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: Terengganu vs Imigresen
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-08 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Terengganu 1.45 — Imigresen 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 37.0% · Over 2.5 63.0%); BTTS No (Yes 55.8% · No 44.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.8% · No 44.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.1%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Johor Darul Takzim FC 24 23 1 0 70
2 Kuching FA 24 16 5 3 53
3 Selangor 24 16 4 4 52
4 Kuala Lumpur FA 24 12 7 5 43
5 Terengganu 24 10 6 8 36
6 Imigresen 24 9 5 10 32
7 Negeri Sembilan 24 6 11 7 29
8 Penang 24 6 7 11 25
9 Sabah FA 24 5 8 11 23
10 DPMM FC 24 6 5 13 23
11 Melaka 24 4 7 13 19
12 Kelantan United 24 4 3 17 15
13 Pdrm 24 2 5 17 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Johor Darul Takzim FC 24 117 10 +107 70
2 Selangor 24 59 20 +39 52
3 Kuching FA 24 45 14 +31 53
4 Kuala Lumpur FA 24 40 29 +11 43
5 Terengganu 24 39 34 +5 36
6 Negeri Sembilan 24 39 35 +4 29
7 Imigresen 24 38 43 -5 32
8 DPMM FC 24 30 57 -27 23
9 Sabah FA 24 29 44 -15 23
10 Penang 24 26 41 -15 25
11 Melaka 24 18 45 -27 19
12 Kelantan United 24 17 63 -46 15
13 Pdrm 24 17 79 -62 11