The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Negeri Sembilan at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Negeri Sembilan Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negeri Sembilan | 41.8% | 56.5% | -14.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.7% | 23.5% | +2.2 pp | Aligned |
| Melaka | 32.6% | 20.1% | +12.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Negeri Sembilan's win probability at 56.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 14.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Negeri Sembilan than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Negeri Sembilan by 14.7 percentage points (56.5% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Negeri Sembilan 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Melaka 32.6%
- xG · Negeri Sembilan 1.45 — Melaka 1.25
-
May 03, 2026 · 12:51 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Negeri Sembilan 1.62 · Draw 3.90 · Melaka 4.56
- Implied 1X2 · Negeri Sembilan 56.5% · Draw 23.5% · Melaka 20.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 03, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Negeri Sembilan 1.62 · Draw 3.90 · Melaka 4.56
- Implied 1X2 · Negeri Sembilan 56.5% · Draw 23.5% · Melaka 20.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 03, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Super League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 24 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 70 |
| 2 | Kuching FA | 24 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 53 |
| 3 | Selangor | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 52 |
| 4 | Kuala Lumpur FA | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 43 |
| 5 | Terengganu | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 36 |
| 6 | Imigresen | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 32 |
| 7 | Negeri Sembilan | 24 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Penang | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 25 |
| 9 | Sabah FA | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 23 |
| 10 | DPMM FC | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 23 |
| 11 | Melaka | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19 |
| 12 | Kelantan United | 24 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 15 |
| 13 | Pdrm | 24 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 11 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 24 | 117 | 10 | +107 | 70 |
| 2 | Selangor | 24 | 59 | 20 | +39 | 52 |
| 3 | Kuching FA | 24 | 45 | 14 | +31 | 53 |
| 4 | Kuala Lumpur FA | 24 | 40 | 29 | +11 | 43 |
| 5 | Terengganu | 24 | 39 | 34 | +5 | 36 |
| 6 | Negeri Sembilan | 24 | 39 | 35 | +4 | 29 |
| 7 | Imigresen | 24 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 32 |
| 8 | DPMM FC | 24 | 30 | 57 | -27 | 23 |
| 9 | Sabah FA | 24 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 23 |
| 10 | Penang | 24 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 25 |
| 11 | Melaka | 24 | 18 | 45 | -27 | 19 |
| 12 | Kelantan United | 24 | 17 | 63 | -46 | 15 |
| 13 | Pdrm | 24 | 17 | 79 | -62 | 11 |
