Predictions / Football / Indonesia. Liga 1 / Persija vs Semen Padang

Prediction Audit: Persija vs Semen Padang Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Persija Persija
May 23, 2026 - 09:00
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Semen Padang Semen Padang

AI correctly predicted the Persija win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Persija Persija ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1, 3-0 3-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Persija higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Persija -43.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Persija 41.8% 85.2% -43.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 8.5% +17.2 pp Model Edge
Semen Padang 32.6% 6.3% +26.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Persija's win probability at 85.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 43.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Persija win 3–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 3–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Persija higher (85.2% vs model 41.8%, 43.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Persija win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 18:23 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Persija 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Semen Padang 32.6%
    • xG · Persija 1.45 — Semen Padang 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Persija 1.05 · Draw 10.53 · Semen Padang 14.17
    • Implied 1X2 · Persija 85.2% · Draw 8.5% · Semen Padang 6.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Persija 1.05 · Draw 10.53 · Semen Padang 14.17
    • Implied 1X2 · Persija 85.2% · Draw 8.5% · Semen Padang 6.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 23, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Persija win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 27/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (43 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 7/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 13:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1710231

Closing Odds 1.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Persija win · Persija 3–0 Semen Padang
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Persija; market prices Persija instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Persija 1.45 xG vs Semen Padang 1.25 → Persija 41.8%
  • Market: Persija ~85.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 49.4% · Over 2.5 50.6%); BTTS No (Yes 39.9% · No 60.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 1 Liga 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Persib Bandung 34 24 7 3 79
2 Pusamania Borneo 34 25 4 5 79
3 Persija 34 22 5 7 71
4 Persebaya Surabaya 34 16 10 8 58
5 Bhayangkara FC 34 16 5 13 53
6 Malut United 34 15 8 11 53
7 Dewa United 34 16 5 13 53
8 Bali United 34 14 9 11 51
9 Arema FC 34 13 9 12 48
10 Persita 34 13 6 15 45
11 PSIM Yogyakarta 34 11 12 11 45
12 Persik Kediri 34 11 6 17 39
13 Persijap 34 9 9 16 36
14 Persepam Madura Utd 34 9 8 17 35
15 PSM Makassar 34 8 10 16 34
16 Persis Solo 34 8 10 16 34
17 Semen Padang 34 5 5 24 20
18 PSBS Biak Numfor 34 4 6 24 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Pusamania Borneo 34 74 31 +43 79
2 Malut United 34 68 53 +15 53
3 Persija 34 65 29 +36 71
4 Persebaya Surabaya 34 61 35 +26 58
5 Persib Bandung 34 59 22 +37 79
6 Bali United 34 57 48 +9 51
7 Bhayangkara FC 34 53 45 +8 53
8 Arema FC 34 53 47 +6 48
9 Dewa United 34 44 37 +7 53
10 PSIM Yogyakarta 34 43 44 -1 45
11 Persik Kediri 34 42 61 -19 39
12 PSM Makassar 34 39 49 -10 34
13 Persis Solo 34 39 59 -20 34
14 Persita 34 38 37 +1 45
15 Persepam Madura Utd 34 37 54 -17 35
16 Persijap 34 31 45 -14 36
17 PSBS Biak Numfor 34 31 95 -64 18
18 Semen Padang 34 22 65 -43 20