Predictions / Football / Indonesia. Liga 1 / Dewa United vs Bali United

Prediction Audit: Dewa United vs Bali United Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dewa United Dewa United
May 22, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Bali United Bali United

The model missed the final outcome (Bali United win 0–1).

The model had projected Dewa United at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dewa United Bali United ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dewa United higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dewa United -13.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dewa United 41.8% 55.1% -13.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 23.3% +2.4 pp Aligned
Bali United 32.6% 21.6% +10.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Dewa United's win probability at 55.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 13.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Bali United win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Dewa United than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Dewa United; match finished Bali United

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Dewa United by 13.3 percentage points (55.1% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 18:23 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dewa United 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Bali United 32.6%
    • xG · Dewa United 1.45 — Bali United 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dewa United 1.68 · Draw 3.98 · Bali United 4.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Dewa United 55.1% · Draw 23.3% · Bali United 21.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dewa United 1.68 · Draw 3.98 · Bali United 4.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Dewa United 55.1% · Draw 23.3% · Bali United 21.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 22, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bali United win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 33/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 17:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1480863

Closing Odds 1.68
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bali United win · Dewa United 0–1 Bali United
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga 1
  • Fixture: Dewa United vs Bali United
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Dewa United 1.45 — Bali United 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 46.9% · Implied: 37.1% · Probability edge: +9.8 pts · Est. EV: +21.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.8% · No 47.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.9%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 1 Liga 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Persib Bandung 34 24 7 3 79
2 Pusamania Borneo 34 25 4 5 79
3 Persija 34 22 5 7 71
4 Persebaya Surabaya 34 16 10 8 58
5 Bhayangkara FC 34 16 5 13 53
6 Malut United 34 15 8 11 53
7 Dewa United 34 16 5 13 53
8 Bali United 34 14 9 11 51
9 Arema FC 34 13 9 12 48
10 Persita 34 13 6 15 45
11 PSIM Yogyakarta 34 11 12 11 45
12 Persik Kediri 34 11 6 17 39
13 Persijap 34 9 9 16 36
14 Persepam Madura Utd 34 9 8 17 35
15 PSM Makassar 34 8 10 16 34
16 Persis Solo 34 8 10 16 34
17 Semen Padang 34 5 5 24 20
18 PSBS Biak Numfor 34 4 6 24 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Pusamania Borneo 34 74 31 +43 79
2 Malut United 34 68 53 +15 53
3 Persija 34 65 29 +36 71
4 Persebaya Surabaya 34 61 35 +26 58
5 Persib Bandung 34 59 22 +37 79
6 Bali United 34 57 48 +9 51
7 Bhayangkara FC 34 53 45 +8 53
8 Arema FC 34 53 47 +6 48
9 Dewa United 34 44 37 +7 53
10 PSIM Yogyakarta 34 43 44 -1 45
11 Persik Kediri 34 42 61 -19 39
12 PSM Makassar 34 39 49 -10 34
13 Persis Solo 34 39 59 -20 34
14 Persita 34 38 37 +1 45
15 Persepam Madura Utd 34 37 54 -17 35
16 Persijap 34 31 45 -14 36
17 PSBS Biak Numfor 34 31 95 -64 18
18 Semen Padang 34 22 65 -43 20