Predictions / Football / Indonesia. Liga 1 / Arema FC vs PSIM Yogyakarta

Prediction Audit: Arema FC vs PSIM Yogyakarta Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Arema FC Arema FC
May 22, 2026 - 08:30
3 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
PSIM Yogyakarta PSIM Yogyakarta

AI correctly predicted the Arema FC win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Arema FC Arema FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Arema FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Arema FC -5.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Arema FC 41.8% 46.8% -5.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 24.9% +0.8 pp Aligned
PSIM Yogyakarta 32.6% 28.3% +4.3 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Arema FC's win probability at 46.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Arema FC win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Arema FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Arema FC higher (46.8% vs model 41.8%, 5.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Arema FC win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 18:21 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Arema FC 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · PSIM Yogyakarta 32.6%
    • xG · Arema FC 1.45 — PSIM Yogyakarta 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Arema FC 1.97 · Draw 3.70 · PSIM Yogyakarta 3.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Arema FC 46.8% · Draw 24.9% · PSIM Yogyakarta 28.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Arema FC 1.97 · Draw 3.70 · PSIM Yogyakarta 3.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Arema FC 46.8% · Draw 24.9% · PSIM Yogyakarta 28.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 22, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Arema FC win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 74/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1492508

Closing Odds 1.97
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Arema FC win · Arema FC 3–1 PSIM Yogyakarta
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga 1
  • Fixture: Arema FC vs PSIM Yogyakarta
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Arema FC 1.45 — PSIM Yogyakarta 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 43.5% · Probability edge: +5.9 pts · Est. EV: +11.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.5% · No 40.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 1 Liga 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Persib Bandung 34 24 7 3 79
2 Pusamania Borneo 34 25 4 5 79
3 Persija 34 22 5 7 71
4 Persebaya Surabaya 34 16 10 8 58
5 Bhayangkara FC 34 16 5 13 53
6 Malut United 34 15 8 11 53
7 Dewa United 34 16 5 13 53
8 Bali United 34 14 9 11 51
9 Arema FC 34 13 9 12 48
10 Persita 34 13 6 15 45
11 PSIM Yogyakarta 34 11 12 11 45
12 Persik Kediri 34 11 6 17 39
13 Persijap 34 9 9 16 36
14 Persepam Madura Utd 34 9 8 17 35
15 PSM Makassar 34 8 10 16 34
16 Persis Solo 34 8 10 16 34
17 Semen Padang 34 5 5 24 20
18 PSBS Biak Numfor 34 4 6 24 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Pusamania Borneo 34 74 31 +43 79
2 Malut United 34 68 53 +15 53
3 Persija 34 65 29 +36 71
4 Persebaya Surabaya 34 61 35 +26 58
5 Persib Bandung 34 59 22 +37 79
6 Bali United 34 57 48 +9 51
7 Bhayangkara FC 34 53 45 +8 53
8 Arema FC 34 53 47 +6 48
9 Dewa United 34 44 37 +7 53
10 PSIM Yogyakarta 34 43 44 -1 45
11 Persik Kediri 34 42 61 -19 39
12 PSM Makassar 34 39 49 -10 34
13 Persis Solo 34 39 59 -20 34
14 Persita 34 38 37 +1 45
15 Persepam Madura Utd 34 37 54 -17 35
16 Persijap 34 31 45 -14 36
17 PSBS Biak Numfor 34 31 95 -64 18
18 Semen Padang 34 22 65 -43 20