Predictions / Football / Indonesia. Liga 1 / Bali United vs Pusamania Borneo

Prediction Audit: Bali United vs Pusamania Borneo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bali United Bali United
May 11, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 53%
Pusamania Borneo Pusamania Borneo

The model missed the final outcome (Pusamania Borneo win 2–3).

The model had projected Bali United at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bali United Pusamania Borneo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Pusamania Borneo higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Pusamania Borneo -21.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bali United 41.8% 24.1% +17.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 21.7% +4.0 pp Aligned
Pusamania Borneo 32.6% 54.2% -21.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Pusamania Borneo's win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 21.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Pusamania Borneo win 2–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Bali United; match finished Pusamania Borneo

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Bali United by 21.6 percentage points (63.4% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 11, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bali United 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Pusamania Borneo 32.6%
    • xG · Bali United 1.45 — Pusamania Borneo 1.25
  2. May 11, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bali United 3.94 · Draw 4.37 · Pusamania Borneo 1.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Bali United 24.1% · Draw 21.7% · Pusamania Borneo 54.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 11, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bali United 3.94 · Draw 4.37 · Pusamania Borneo 1.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Bali United 24.1% · Draw 21.7% · Pusamania Borneo 54.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 11, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Pusamania Borneo win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2535274

Closing Odds 1.75
AI Fair Odds 2.39
CLV Pending
Final Result Pusamania Borneo win · Bali United 2–3 Pusamania Borneo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga 1
  • Fixture: Bali United vs Pusamania Borneo
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-11 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Bali United 1.45 — Pusamania Borneo 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 69.4% · Implied: 61.7% · Probability edge: +7.7 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 69.4% · No 30.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.9%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 1 Liga 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Persib Bandung 34 24 7 3 79
2 Pusamania Borneo 34 25 4 5 79
3 Persija 34 22 5 7 71
4 Persebaya Surabaya 34 16 10 8 58
5 Bhayangkara FC 34 16 5 13 53
6 Malut United 34 15 8 11 53
7 Dewa United 34 16 5 13 53
8 Bali United 34 14 9 11 51
9 Arema FC 34 13 9 12 48
10 Persita 34 13 6 15 45
11 PSIM Yogyakarta 34 11 12 11 45
12 Persik Kediri 34 11 6 17 39
13 Persijap 34 9 9 16 36
14 Persepam Madura Utd 34 9 8 17 35
15 PSM Makassar 34 8 10 16 34
16 Persis Solo 34 8 10 16 34
17 Semen Padang 34 5 5 24 20
18 PSBS Biak Numfor 34 4 6 24 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Pusamania Borneo 34 74 31 +43 79
2 Malut United 34 68 53 +15 53
3 Persija 34 65 29 +36 71
4 Persebaya Surabaya 34 61 35 +26 58
5 Persib Bandung 34 59 22 +37 79
6 Bali United 34 57 48 +9 51
7 Bhayangkara FC 34 53 45 +8 53
8 Arema FC 34 53 47 +6 48
9 Dewa United 34 44 37 +7 53
10 PSIM Yogyakarta 34 43 44 -1 45
11 Persik Kediri 34 42 61 -19 39
12 PSM Makassar 34 39 49 -10 34
13 Persis Solo 34 39 59 -20 34
14 Persita 34 38 37 +1 45
15 Persepam Madura Utd 34 37 54 -17 35
16 Persijap 34 31 45 -14 36
17 PSBS Biak Numfor 34 31 95 -64 18
18 Semen Padang 34 22 65 -43 20