Predictions / Football / Indonesia. Liga 1 / Semen Padang vs Persik Kediri

Prediction Audit: Semen Padang vs Persik Kediri Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Semen Padang Semen Padang
May 08, 2026 - 08:30
0 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Persik Kediri Persik Kediri

The model missed the final outcome (Persik Kediri win 0–3).

The model had projected Semen Padang at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Persik Kediri ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Semen Padang considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Semen Padang +15.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Semen Padang 41.8% 26.1% +15.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 26.0% -0.3 pp Aligned
Persik Kediri 32.6% 47.8% -15.3 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Semen Padang's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.1%, a difference of 15.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Persik Kediri win 0–3.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Semen Padang.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Persik Kediri

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Semen Padang by 15.6 percentage points (26.2% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 08, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Semen Padang 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Persik Kediri 32.6%
    • xG · Semen Padang 1.45 — Persik Kediri 1.25
  2. May 08, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Semen Padang 3.64 · Draw 3.66 · Persik Kediri 1.99
    • Implied 1X2 · Semen Padang 26.1% · Draw 26.0% · Persik Kediri 47.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 08, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Semen Padang 3.64 · Draw 3.66 · Persik Kediri 1.99
    • Implied 1X2 · Semen Padang 26.1% · Draw 26.0% · Persik Kediri 47.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 08, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Persik Kediri win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 7/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1491924

Closing Odds 3.64
AI Fair Odds 2.39
CLV Pending
Final Result Persik Kediri win · Semen Padang 0–3 Persik Kediri
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga 1
  • Fixture: Semen Padang vs Persik Kediri
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-08 08:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Semen Padang 1.45 — Persik Kediri 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 62.5% · Implied: 42.8% · Probability edge: +19.7 pts · Est. EV: +37.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 37.5% · No 62.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 1 Liga 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Persib Bandung 34 24 7 3 79
2 Pusamania Borneo 34 25 4 5 79
3 Persija 34 22 5 7 71
4 Persebaya Surabaya 34 16 10 8 58
5 Bhayangkara FC 34 16 5 13 53
6 Malut United 34 15 8 11 53
7 Dewa United 34 16 5 13 53
8 Bali United 34 14 9 11 51
9 Arema FC 34 13 9 12 48
10 Persita 34 13 6 15 45
11 PSIM Yogyakarta 34 11 12 11 45
12 Persik Kediri 34 11 6 17 39
13 Persijap 34 9 9 16 36
14 Persepam Madura Utd 34 9 8 17 35
15 PSM Makassar 34 8 10 16 34
16 Persis Solo 34 8 10 16 34
17 Semen Padang 34 5 5 24 20
18 PSBS Biak Numfor 34 4 6 24 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Pusamania Borneo 34 74 31 +43 79
2 Malut United 34 68 53 +15 53
3 Persija 34 65 29 +36 71
4 Persebaya Surabaya 34 61 35 +26 58
5 Persib Bandung 34 59 22 +37 79
6 Bali United 34 57 48 +9 51
7 Bhayangkara FC 34 53 45 +8 53
8 Arema FC 34 53 47 +6 48
9 Dewa United 34 44 37 +7 53
10 PSIM Yogyakarta 34 43 44 -1 45
11 Persik Kediri 34 42 61 -19 39
12 PSM Makassar 34 39 49 -10 34
13 Persis Solo 34 39 59 -20 34
14 Persita 34 38 37 +1 45
15 Persepam Madura Utd 34 37 54 -17 35
16 Persijap 34 31 45 -14 36
17 PSBS Biak Numfor 34 31 95 -64 18
18 Semen Padang 34 22 65 -43 20