Predictions / Football / Indonesia. Liga 1 / Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United

Prediction Audit: Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Persepam Madura Utd Persepam Madura Utd
May 05, 2026 - 08:30
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Bali United Bali United

The model missed the final outcome (Persepam Madura Utd win 2–0).

The model had projected Persepam Madura Utd at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Persepam Madura Utd ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Bali United -1.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Persepam Madura Utd 41.8% 41.5% +0.2 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 24.3% +1.3 pp Aligned
Bali United 32.6% 34.1% -1.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Persepam Madura Utd win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Persepam Madura Utd
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Persepam Madura Utd win 2–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 05, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Persepam Madura Utd 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Bali United 32.6%
    • xG · Persepam Madura Utd 1.45 — Bali United 1.25
  2. May 05, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Persepam Madura Utd 2.29 · Draw 3.91 · Bali United 2.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Persepam Madura Utd 41.5% · Draw 24.3% · Bali United 34.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 05, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Persepam Madura Utd 2.29 · Draw 3.91 · Bali United 2.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Persepam Madura Utd 41.5% · Draw 24.3% · Bali United 34.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 05, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Persepam Madura Utd win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 92/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 07:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3031594

Closing Odds 2.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Persepam Madura Utd win · Persepam Madura Utd 2–0 Bali United
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga 1
  • Fixture: Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-05 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Persepam Madura Utd 1.45 — Bali United 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 51.4% · Implied: 40.0% · Probability edge: +11.4 pts · Est. EV: +22.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.6% · No 51.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Liga 1 Matches Track Persepam Madura Utd Next Match Prediction Track Bali United Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Persepam Madura Utd & Bali United!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Liga 1 Liga 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Persib Bandung 34 24 7 3 79
2 Pusamania Borneo 34 25 4 5 79
3 Persija 34 22 5 7 71
4 Persebaya Surabaya 34 16 10 8 58
5 Bhayangkara FC 34 16 5 13 53
6 Malut United 34 15 8 11 53
7 Dewa United 34 16 5 13 53
8 Bali United 34 14 9 11 51
9 Arema FC 34 13 9 12 48
10 Persita 34 13 6 15 45
11 PSIM Yogyakarta 34 11 12 11 45
12 Persik Kediri 34 11 6 17 39
13 Persijap 34 9 9 16 36
14 Persepam Madura Utd 34 9 8 17 35
15 PSM Makassar 34 8 10 16 34
16 Persis Solo 34 8 10 16 34
17 Semen Padang 34 5 5 24 20
18 PSBS Biak Numfor 34 4 6 24 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Pusamania Borneo 34 74 31 +43 79
2 Malut United 34 68 53 +15 53
3 Persija 34 65 29 +36 71
4 Persebaya Surabaya 34 61 35 +26 58
5 Persib Bandung 34 59 22 +37 79
6 Bali United 34 57 48 +9 51
7 Bhayangkara FC 34 53 45 +8 53
8 Arema FC 34 53 47 +6 48
9 Dewa United 34 44 37 +7 53
10 PSIM Yogyakarta 34 43 44 -1 45
11 Persik Kediri 34 42 61 -19 39
12 PSM Makassar 34 39 49 -10 34
13 Persis Solo 34 39 59 -20 34
14 Persita 34 38 37 +1 45
15 Persepam Madura Utd 34 37 54 -17 35
16 Persijap 34 31 45 -14 36
17 PSBS Biak Numfor 34 31 95 -64 18
18 Semen Padang 34 22 65 -43 20