Predictions / Football / Indonesia. Liga 1 / Pusamania Borneo vs Persita

Prediction Audit: Pusamania Borneo vs Persita Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pusamania Borneo Pusamania Borneo
May 05, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Persita Persita

AI correctly predicted the Pusamania Borneo win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Pusamania Borneo Pusamania Borneo ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Pusamania Borneo higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Pusamania Borneo -25.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pusamania Borneo 41.8% 67.7% -25.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 19.6% +6.1 pp Model Higher
Persita 32.6% 12.7% +19.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Pusamania Borneo's win probability at 67.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 25.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Pusamania Borneo win 2–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Pusamania Borneo higher (67.7% vs model 41.8%, 25.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Pusamania Borneo win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 05, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pusamania Borneo 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Persita 32.6%
    • xG · Pusamania Borneo 1.45 — Persita 1.25
  2. May 05, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pusamania Borneo 1.42 · Draw 4.73 · Persita 7.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Pusamania Borneo 66.6% · Draw 20.0% · Persita 13.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 05, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pusamania Borneo 1.40 · Draw 4.83 · Persita 7.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Pusamania Borneo 67.7% · Draw 19.6% · Persita 12.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 05, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Pusamania Borneo win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 16:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1618422

Closing Odds 1.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pusamania Borneo win · Pusamania Borneo 2–0 Persita
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga 1
  • Fixture: Pusamania Borneo vs Persita
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-05 08:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Pusamania Borneo 1.45 — Persita 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 53.1% · Over 2.5 46.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.9% · No 47.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.9% · No 47.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 1 Liga 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Persib Bandung 34 24 7 3 79
2 Pusamania Borneo 34 25 4 5 79
3 Persija 34 22 5 7 71
4 Persebaya Surabaya 34 16 10 8 58
5 Bhayangkara FC 34 16 5 13 53
6 Malut United 34 15 8 11 53
7 Dewa United 34 16 5 13 53
8 Bali United 34 14 9 11 51
9 Arema FC 34 13 9 12 48
10 Persita 34 13 6 15 45
11 PSIM Yogyakarta 34 11 12 11 45
12 Persik Kediri 34 11 6 17 39
13 Persijap 34 9 9 16 36
14 Persepam Madura Utd 34 9 8 17 35
15 PSM Makassar 34 8 10 16 34
16 Persis Solo 34 8 10 16 34
17 Semen Padang 34 5 5 24 20
18 PSBS Biak Numfor 34 4 6 24 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Pusamania Borneo 34 74 31 +43 79
2 Malut United 34 68 53 +15 53
3 Persija 34 65 29 +36 71
4 Persebaya Surabaya 34 61 35 +26 58
5 Persib Bandung 34 59 22 +37 79
6 Bali United 34 57 48 +9 51
7 Bhayangkara FC 34 53 45 +8 53
8 Arema FC 34 53 47 +6 48
9 Dewa United 34 44 37 +7 53
10 PSIM Yogyakarta 34 43 44 -1 45
11 Persik Kediri 34 42 61 -19 39
12 PSM Makassar 34 39 49 -10 34
13 Persis Solo 34 39 59 -20 34
14 Persita 34 38 37 +1 45
15 Persepam Madura Utd 34 37 54 -17 35
16 Persijap 34 31 45 -14 36
17 PSBS Biak Numfor 34 31 95 -64 18
18 Semen Padang 34 22 65 -43 20