Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. FNL / Chrudim vs Příbram

Prediction Audit: Chrudim vs Příbram Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Chrudim Chrudim
May 12, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Příbram Příbram

AI correctly predicted the Chrudim win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Chrudim Chrudim ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Chrudim considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Chrudim +7.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Chrudim 41.8% 34.2% +7.5 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 26.8% -1.1 pp Aligned
Příbram 32.6% 39.0% -6.4 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Chrudim's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.2%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Chrudim win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Chrudim.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Chrudim more conservatively (34.3% vs model 41.8%, 7.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Chrudim win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 12, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Chrudim 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Příbram 32.6%
    • xG · Chrudim 1.45 — Příbram 1.25
  2. May 12, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Chrudim 2.54 · Draw 3.25 · Příbram 2.23
    • Implied 1X2 · Chrudim 34.2% · Draw 26.8% · Příbram 39.0%
    • Bookmaker · SBO
  3. May 12, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Chrudim 2.54 · Draw 3.25 · Příbram 2.23
    • Implied 1X2 · Chrudim 34.2% · Draw 26.8% · Příbram 39.0%
    • Bookmaker · SBO
  4. May 12, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Chrudim win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 15:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3445281

Closing Odds 2.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Chrudim win · Chrudim 2–0 Příbram
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: FNL
  • Fixture: Chrudim vs Příbram
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-12 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Chrudim 1.45 — Příbram 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 60.5% · Implied: 37.6% · Probability edge: +22.9 pts · Est. EV: +59.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 39.5% · No 60.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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FNL FNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zbrojovka Brno 29 23 4 2 73
2 Táborsko 29 16 5 8 53
3 Líšeň 29 15 7 7 52
4 Ústí nad Labem 29 15 3 11 48
5 Příbram 29 13 6 10 45
6 Baník Ostrava II 29 13 5 11 44
7 Opava 29 11 10 8 43
8 Viktoria Žižkov 29 12 5 12 41
9 Vlašim 29 10 8 11 38
10 Slavia Praha II 29 10 5 14 35
11 České Budějovice 29 10 4 15 34
12 Chrudim 29 8 8 13 32
13 Hanácká 29 9 4 16 31
14 Prostějov 29 5 12 12 27
15 Vysočina Jihlava 29 6 8 15 26
16 Sparta Praha II 29 7 4 18 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zbrojovka Brno 29 58 21 +37 73
2 Ústí nad Labem 29 52 43 +9 48
3 Líšeň 29 49 35 +14 52
4 Táborsko 29 48 31 +17 53
5 Baník Ostrava II 29 44 38 +6 44
6 Opava 29 42 31 +11 43
7 Vlašim 29 39 31 +8 38
8 Slavia Praha II 29 39 45 -6 35
9 Viktoria Žižkov 29 37 50 -13 41
10 Chrudim 29 36 49 -13 32
11 České Budějovice 29 30 39 -9 34
12 Hanácká 29 30 42 -12 31
13 Prostějov 29 30 43 -13 27
14 Příbram 29 29 30 -1 45
15 Vysočina Jihlava 29 29 38 -9 26
16 Sparta Praha II 29 27 53 -26 25