Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. FNL / Líšeň vs Příbram

Prediction Audit: Líšeň vs Příbram Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Líšeň Líšeň
May 06, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Příbram Příbram

The model missed the final outcome (Příbram win 0–2).

The model had projected Líšeň at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Líšeň Příbram ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Líšeň higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Líšeň -14.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Líšeň 41.8% 55.8% -14.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 23.4% +2.3 pp Aligned
Příbram 32.6% 20.8% +11.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Líšeň's win probability at 55.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 14.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Příbram win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Líšeň than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Líšeň; match finished Příbram
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Líšeň by 14.0 percentage points (55.8% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 06, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Líšeň 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Příbram 32.6%
    • xG · Líšeň 1.45 — Příbram 1.25
  2. May 06, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Líšeň 1.66 · Draw 3.96 · Příbram 4.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Líšeň 55.8% · Draw 23.4% · Příbram 20.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 06, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Líšeň 1.66 · Draw 3.96 · Příbram 4.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Líšeň 55.8% · Draw 23.4% · Příbram 20.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 06, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Příbram win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 29/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 15:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3444462

Closing Odds 1.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Příbram win · Líšeň 0–2 Příbram
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: FNL
  • Fixture: Líšeň vs Příbram
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-06 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Líšeň 1.45 — Příbram 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 55.7% · Implied: 45.6% · Probability edge: +10.1 pts · Est. EV: +16.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 50.3% · No 49.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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FNL FNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zbrojovka Brno 29 23 4 2 73
2 Táborsko 29 16 5 8 53
3 Líšeň 29 15 7 7 52
4 Ústí nad Labem 29 15 3 11 48
5 Příbram 29 13 6 10 45
6 Baník Ostrava II 29 13 5 11 44
7 Opava 29 11 10 8 43
8 Viktoria Žižkov 29 12 5 12 41
9 Vlašim 29 10 8 11 38
10 Slavia Praha II 29 10 5 14 35
11 České Budějovice 29 10 4 15 34
12 Chrudim 29 8 8 13 32
13 Hanácká 29 9 4 16 31
14 Prostějov 29 5 12 12 27
15 Vysočina Jihlava 29 6 8 15 26
16 Sparta Praha II 29 7 4 18 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zbrojovka Brno 29 58 21 +37 73
2 Ústí nad Labem 29 52 43 +9 48
3 Líšeň 29 49 35 +14 52
4 Táborsko 29 48 31 +17 53
5 Baník Ostrava II 29 44 38 +6 44
6 Opava 29 42 31 +11 43
7 Vlašim 29 39 31 +8 38
8 Slavia Praha II 29 39 45 -6 35
9 Viktoria Žižkov 29 37 50 -13 41
10 Chrudim 29 36 49 -13 32
11 České Budějovice 29 30 39 -9 34
12 Hanácká 29 30 42 -12 31
13 Prostějov 29 30 43 -13 27
14 Příbram 29 29 30 -1 45
15 Vysočina Jihlava 29 29 38 -9 26
16 Sparta Praha II 29 27 53 -26 25