Prediction Audit: Eintracht Frankfurt W vs Union Berlin W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Eintracht Frankfurt W

May 17, 2026 - 12:00

4 1.45

2 1.25

xG Accuracy: 40%

Union Berlin W

AI correctly predicted the Eintracht Frankfurt W win.

The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Eintracht Frankfurt W Eintracht Frankfurt W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Eintracht Frankfurt W	41.8%	69.3%	-27.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	25.7%	17.1%	+8.6 pp	Model Higher
Union Berlin W	32.6%	13.5%	+19.0 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Eintracht Frankfurt W's win probability at 69.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 27.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Eintracht Frankfurt W win 4–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Eintracht Frankfurt W higher (69.4% vs model 41.8%, 27.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Eintracht Frankfurt W win 4–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

May 17, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Eintracht Frankfurt W 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Union Berlin W 32.6%
- xG · Eintracht Frankfurt W 1.45 — Union Berlin W 1.25
May 17, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Eintracht Frankfurt W 1.32 · Draw 5.35 · Union Berlin W 6.76
- Implied 1X2 · Eintracht Frankfurt W 69.3% · Draw 17.1% · Union Berlin W 13.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 17, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Eintracht Frankfurt W 1.32 · Draw 5.35 · Union Berlin W 6.76
- Implied 1X2 · Eintracht Frankfurt W 69.3% · Draw 17.1% · Union Berlin W 13.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 17, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Eintracht Frankfurt W win · 4–2
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (28 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 20:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3578237

Closing Odds 1.32

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Eintracht Frankfurt W win · Eintracht Frankfurt W 4–2 Union Berlin W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Frauen Bundesliga
Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt W vs Union Berlin W
Kickoff: 2026-05-17 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Eintracht Frankfurt W 1.45 — Union Berlin W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 27.7% · Over 2.5 72.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 70.4% · No 29.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 70.4% · No 29.6%
Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.7%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Frauen Bundesliga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	26	24	2	0	74
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	26	18	4	4	58
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	26	16	3	7	51
4	1899 Hoffenheim W	26	14	4	8	46
5	Bayer Leverkusen W	26	15	1	10	46
6	Werder Bremen W	26	12	7	7	43
7	FC Koln W	26	11	4	11	37
8	SC Freiburg W	26	10	4	12	34
9	Union Berlin W	26	8	6	12	30
10	RB Leipzig W	26	7	7	12	28
11	Nürnberg	26	6	4	16	22
12	Hamburger SV W	26	4	6	16	18
13	SGS Essen W	26	3	7	16	16
14	Carl Zeiss Jena W	26	2	5	19	11

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	26	90	9	+81	74
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	26	72	38	+34	58
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	26	65	43	+22	51
4	1899 Hoffenheim W	26	48	30	+18	46
5	Bayer Leverkusen W	26	46	36	+10	46
6	SC Freiburg W	26	44	46	-2	34
7	Werder Bremen W	26	42	36	+6	43
8	Union Berlin W	26	42	51	-9	30
9	RB Leipzig W	26	39	48	-9	28
10	FC Koln W	26	36	37	-1	37
11	Nürnberg	26	33	61	-28	22
12	Hamburger SV W	26	26	57	-31	18
13	SGS Essen W	26	22	63	-41	16
14	Carl Zeiss Jena W	26	22	72	-50	11