Predictions / Football / Germany. Frauen Bundesliga / Bayer Leverkusen W vs Werder Bremen W

Prediction Audit: Bayer Leverkusen W vs Werder Bremen W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bayer Leverkusen W Bayer Leverkusen W
May 17, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Werder Bremen W Werder Bremen W

The model missed the final outcome (Werder Bremen W win 1–3).

The model had projected Bayer Leverkusen W at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bayer Leverkusen W Werder Bremen W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Bayer Leverkusen W higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bayer Leverkusen W -16.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bayer Leverkusen W 41.8% 57.9% -16.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 22.6% +3.1 pp Aligned
Werder Bremen W 32.6% 19.5% +13.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Bayer Leverkusen W's win probability at 57.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 16.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Werder Bremen W win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Bayer Leverkusen W than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Bayer Leverkusen W by 16.2 percentage points (58.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bayer Leverkusen W 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Werder Bremen W 32.6%
    • xG · Bayer Leverkusen W 1.45 — Werder Bremen W 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bayer Leverkusen W 1.58 · Draw 4.06 · Werder Bremen W 4.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Bayer Leverkusen W 57.9% · Draw 22.6% · Werder Bremen W 19.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bayer Leverkusen W 1.58 · Draw 4.06 · Werder Bremen W 4.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Bayer Leverkusen W 57.9% · Draw 22.6% · Werder Bremen W 19.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 17, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Werder Bremen W win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 19/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2218381

Closing Odds 1.58
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Werder Bremen W win · Bayer Leverkusen W 1–3 Werder Bremen W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Frauen Bundesliga
  • Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen W vs Werder Bremen W
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Bayer Leverkusen W 1.45 — Werder Bremen W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 41.2% · Over 2.5 58.8%); BTTS No (Yes 54.7% · No 45.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.7% · No 45.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.0%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Frauen Bundesliga Frauen Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bayern Munich W 26 24 2 0 74
2 VfL Wolfsburg W 26 18 4 4 58
3 Eintracht Frankfurt W 26 16 3 7 51
4 1899 Hoffenheim W 26 14 4 8 46
5 Bayer Leverkusen W 26 15 1 10 46
6 Werder Bremen W 26 12 7 7 43
7 FC Koln W 26 11 4 11 37
8 SC Freiburg W 26 10 4 12 34
9 Union Berlin W 26 8 6 12 30
10 RB Leipzig W 26 7 7 12 28
11 Nürnberg 26 6 4 16 22
12 Hamburger SV W 26 4 6 16 18
13 SGS Essen W 26 3 7 16 16
14 Carl Zeiss Jena W 26 2 5 19 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bayern Munich W 26 90 9 +81 74
2 VfL Wolfsburg W 26 72 38 +34 58
3 Eintracht Frankfurt W 26 65 43 +22 51
4 1899 Hoffenheim W 26 48 30 +18 46
5 Bayer Leverkusen W 26 46 36 +10 46
6 SC Freiburg W 26 44 46 -2 34
7 Werder Bremen W 26 42 36 +6 43
8 Union Berlin W 26 42 51 -9 30
9 RB Leipzig W 26 39 48 -9 28
10 FC Koln W 26 36 37 -1 37
11 Nürnberg 26 33 61 -28 22
12 Hamburger SV W 26 26 57 -31 18
13 SGS Essen W 26 22 63 -41 16
14 Carl Zeiss Jena W 26 22 72 -50 11
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