Predictions / Football / Germany. Frauen Bundesliga / SC Freiburg W vs VfL Wolfsburg W

Prediction Audit: SC Freiburg W vs VfL Wolfsburg W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SC Freiburg W SC Freiburg W
May 09, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 40%
VfL Wolfsburg W VfL Wolfsburg W

The model missed the final outcome (VfL Wolfsburg W win 2–4).

The model had projected SC Freiburg W at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SC Freiburg W VfL Wolfsburg W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 1-3, 2-1 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices VfL Wolfsburg W higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: VfL Wolfsburg W -29.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
SC Freiburg W 41.8% 18.4% +23.3 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 19.8% +5.8 pp Model Higher
VfL Wolfsburg W 32.6% 61.8% -29.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates VfL Wolfsburg W's win probability at 61.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 29.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was VfL Wolfsburg W win 2–4.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned SC Freiburg W; match finished VfL Wolfsburg W
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on SC Freiburg W by 29.2 percentage points (71.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · SC Freiburg W 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · VfL Wolfsburg W 32.6%
    • xG · SC Freiburg W 1.45 — VfL Wolfsburg W 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · SC Freiburg W 4.96 · Draw 4.61 · VfL Wolfsburg W 1.48
    • Implied 1X2 · SC Freiburg W 18.4% · Draw 19.8% · VfL Wolfsburg W 61.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · SC Freiburg W 4.96 · Draw 4.61 · VfL Wolfsburg W 1.48
    • Implied 1X2 · SC Freiburg W 18.4% · Draw 19.8% · VfL Wolfsburg W 61.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result VfL Wolfsburg W win · 2–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 48/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1623177

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds 2.39
CLV Pending
Final Result VfL Wolfsburg W win · SC Freiburg W 2–4 VfL Wolfsburg W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Frauen Bundesliga
  • Fixture: SC Freiburg W vs VfL Wolfsburg W
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): SC Freiburg W 1.45 — VfL Wolfsburg W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 75.9% · Implied: 62.9% · Probability edge: +13.0 pts · Est. EV: +16.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 75.9% · No 24.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (8.7%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Frauen Bundesliga Frauen Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bayern Munich W 26 24 2 0 74
2 VfL Wolfsburg W 26 18 4 4 58
3 Eintracht Frankfurt W 26 16 3 7 51
4 1899 Hoffenheim W 26 14 4 8 46
5 Bayer Leverkusen W 26 15 1 10 46
6 Werder Bremen W 26 12 7 7 43
7 FC Koln W 26 11 4 11 37
8 SC Freiburg W 26 10 4 12 34
9 Union Berlin W 26 8 6 12 30
10 RB Leipzig W 26 7 7 12 28
11 Nürnberg 26 6 4 16 22
12 Hamburger SV W 26 4 6 16 18
13 SGS Essen W 26 3 7 16 16
14 Carl Zeiss Jena W 26 2 5 19 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bayern Munich W 26 90 9 +81 74
2 VfL Wolfsburg W 26 72 38 +34 58
3 Eintracht Frankfurt W 26 65 43 +22 51
4 1899 Hoffenheim W 26 48 30 +18 46
5 Bayer Leverkusen W 26 46 36 +10 46
6 SC Freiburg W 26 44 46 -2 34
7 Werder Bremen W 26 42 36 +6 43
8 Union Berlin W 26 42 51 -9 30
9 RB Leipzig W 26 39 48 -9 28
10 FC Koln W 26 36 37 -1 37
11 Nürnberg 26 33 61 -28 22
12 Hamburger SV W 26 26 57 -31 18
13 SGS Essen W 26 22 63 -41 16
14 Carl Zeiss Jena W 26 22 72 -50 11
Frauen Bundesliga Germany. Frauen Bundesliga Predictions