The model missed the final outcome (Bayer Leverkusen W win 0–4).
The model had projected SGS Essen W at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 SGS Essen W Bayer Leverkusen W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SGS Essen W | 41.8% | 16.1% | +25.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.7% | 20.7% | +5.0 pp | Aligned |
| Bayer Leverkusen W | 32.6% | 63.1% | -30.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Bayer Leverkusen W's win probability at 63.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 30.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Bayer Leverkusen W win 0–4.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned SGS Essen W; match finished Bayer Leverkusen W
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on SGS Essen W by 30.6 percentage points (72.4% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · SGS Essen W 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Bayer Leverkusen W 32.6%
- xG · SGS Essen W 1.45 — Bayer Leverkusen W 1.25
-
May 03, 2026 · 11:50 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · SGS Essen W 5.67 · Draw 4.42 · Bayer Leverkusen W 1.45
- Implied 1X2 · SGS Essen W 16.1% · Draw 20.7% · Bayer Leverkusen W 63.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 03, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · SGS Essen W 5.67 · Draw 4.42 · Bayer Leverkusen W 1.45
- Implied 1X2 · SGS Essen W 16.1% · Draw 20.7% · Bayer Leverkusen W 63.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 03, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bayer Leverkusen W win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (31 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Frauen Bundesliga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich W | 26 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 74 |
| 2 | VfL Wolfsburg W | 26 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 58 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt W | 26 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 51 |
| 4 | 1899 Hoffenheim W | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen W | 26 | 15 | 1 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen W | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 43 |
| 7 | FC Koln W | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 37 |
| 8 | SC Freiburg W | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 34 |
| 9 | Union Berlin W | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 30 |
| 10 | RB Leipzig W | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 28 |
| 11 | Nürnberg | 26 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 22 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV W | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 18 |
| 13 | SGS Essen W | 26 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 16 |
| 14 | Carl Zeiss Jena W | 26 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 11 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich W | 26 | 90 | 9 | +81 | 74 |
| 2 | VfL Wolfsburg W | 26 | 72 | 38 | +34 | 58 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt W | 26 | 65 | 43 | +22 | 51 |
| 4 | 1899 Hoffenheim W | 26 | 48 | 30 | +18 | 46 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen W | 26 | 46 | 36 | +10 | 46 |
| 6 | SC Freiburg W | 26 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 34 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen W | 26 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 43 |
| 8 | Union Berlin W | 26 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 30 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig W | 26 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 28 |
| 10 | FC Koln W | 26 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 37 |
| 11 | Nürnberg | 26 | 33 | 61 | -28 | 22 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV W | 26 | 26 | 57 | -31 | 18 |
| 13 | SGS Essen W | 26 | 22 | 63 | -41 | 16 |
| 14 | Carl Zeiss Jena W | 26 | 22 | 72 | -50 | 11 |
