Predictions / Football / Germany. Frauen Bundesliga / Hamburger SV W vs Union Berlin W

Prediction Audit: Hamburger SV W vs Union Berlin W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hamburger SV W Hamburger SV W
May 01, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Union Berlin W Union Berlin W

The model missed the final outcome (Union Berlin W win 0–1).

The model had projected Hamburger SV W at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hamburger SV W Union Berlin W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Union Berlin W higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Union Berlin W -12.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hamburger SV W 41.8% 29.4% +12.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 25.6% +0.1 pp Aligned
Union Berlin W 32.6% 45.1% -12.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Union Berlin W's win probability at 45.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Union Berlin W win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Union Berlin W than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hamburger SV W by 12.5 percentage points (54.3% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hamburger SV W 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Union Berlin W 32.6%
    • xG · Hamburger SV W 1.45 — Union Berlin W 1.25
  2. May 03, 2026 · 11:50 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Hamburger SV W 3.16 · Draw 3.63 · Union Berlin W 2.06
    • Implied 1X2 · Hamburger SV W 29.4% · Draw 25.6% · Union Berlin W 45.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 03, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hamburger SV W 3.16 · Draw 3.63 · Union Berlin W 2.06
    • Implied 1X2 · Hamburger SV W 29.4% · Draw 25.6% · Union Berlin W 45.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 01, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Union Berlin W win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 12/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 08:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2590562

Closing Odds 2.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Union Berlin W win · Hamburger SV W 0–1 Union Berlin W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Frauen Bundesliga Frauen Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bayern Munich W 26 24 2 0 74
2 VfL Wolfsburg W 26 18 4 4 58
3 Eintracht Frankfurt W 26 16 3 7 51
4 1899 Hoffenheim W 26 14 4 8 46
5 Bayer Leverkusen W 26 15 1 10 46
6 Werder Bremen W 26 12 7 7 43
7 FC Koln W 26 11 4 11 37
8 SC Freiburg W 26 10 4 12 34
9 Union Berlin W 26 8 6 12 30
10 RB Leipzig W 26 7 7 12 28
11 Nürnberg 26 6 4 16 22
12 Hamburger SV W 26 4 6 16 18
13 SGS Essen W 26 3 7 16 16
14 Carl Zeiss Jena W 26 2 5 19 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bayern Munich W 26 90 9 +81 74
2 VfL Wolfsburg W 26 72 38 +34 58
3 Eintracht Frankfurt W 26 65 43 +22 51
4 1899 Hoffenheim W 26 48 30 +18 46
5 Bayer Leverkusen W 26 46 36 +10 46
6 SC Freiburg W 26 44 46 -2 34
7 Werder Bremen W 26 42 36 +6 43
8 Union Berlin W 26 42 51 -9 30
9 RB Leipzig W 26 39 48 -9 28
10 FC Koln W 26 36 37 -1 37
11 Nürnberg 26 33 61 -28 22
12 Hamburger SV W 26 26 57 -31 18
13 SGS Essen W 26 22 63 -41 16
14 Carl Zeiss Jena W 26 22 72 -50 11
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