The model missed the final outcome (Atromitos win 0–3).
The model had projected Volos NFC at 45.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Volos NFC Atromitos ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Volos NFC; match finished Atromitos
Market lesson
The full-time result was Atromitos win 0–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Volos NFC 1.10 — Atromitos 0.63
-
Jan 19, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Atromitos win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Atromitos win · Volos NFC 0–3 Atromitos
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Super League 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Athens FC | 26 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 60 |
| 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 26 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 58 |
| 3 | PAOK | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 57 |
| 4 | Panathinaikos | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 49 |
| 5 | Levadiakos | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 6 | OFI | 26 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 7 | Volos NFC | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 31 |
| 8 | Aris Thessalonikis | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 30 |
| 9 | Atromitos | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 29 |
| 10 | Kifisia | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 27 |
| 11 | Panetolikos | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 26 |
| 12 | Larisa | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 23 |
| 13 | Panserraikos | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 17 |
| 14 | Asteras Tripolis | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 17 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PAOK | 26 | 52 | 17 | +35 | 57 |
| 2 | Levadiakos | 26 | 51 | 37 | +14 | 42 |
| 3 | AEK Athens FC | 26 | 49 | 17 | +32 | 60 |
| 4 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 26 | 45 | 11 | +34 | 58 |
| 5 | Panathinaikos | 26 | 44 | 26 | +18 | 49 |
| 6 | OFI | 26 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 32 |
| 7 | Kifisia | 26 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 27 |
| 8 | Atromitos | 26 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 29 |
| 9 | Volos NFC | 26 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 31 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 26 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 26 |
| 11 | Larisa | 26 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 23 |
| 12 | Asteras Tripolis | 26 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 17 |
| 13 | Aris Thessalonikis | 26 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 30 |
| 14 | Panserraikos | 26 | 16 | 55 | -39 | 17 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 26 | 42.4 | 12.5 | +29.9 | 58 |
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 26 | 40.5 | 18.8 | +21.7 | 60 |
| 3 | PAOK | 26 | 33.8 | 14.8 | +19.0 | 57 |
| 4 | Panathinaikos | 26 | 31.6 | 18.7 | +12.9 | 49 |
| 5 | Kifisia | 26 | 26.6 | 27.7 | -1.1 | 27 |
| 6 | Aris Thessalonikis | 26 | 26.7 | 28.7 | -2.0 | 30 |
| 7 | Volos NFC | 26 | 24.2 | 26.7 | -2.5 | 31 |
| 8 | Levadiakos | 26 | 25.3 | 30.5 | -5.2 | 42 |
| 9 | Atromitos | 26 | 22.0 | 28.8 | -6.8 | 29 |
| 10 | Larisa | 26 | 22.0 | 31.9 | -9.9 | 23 |
| 11 | Panetolikos | 26 | 19.6 | 31.7 | -12.1 | 26 |
| 12 | Asteras Tripolis | 26 | 16.2 | 28.7 | -12.5 | 17 |
| 13 | OFI | 26 | 18.7 | 34.1 | -15.4 | 32 |
| 14 | Panserraikos | 26 | 17.8 | 33.6 | -15.8 | 17 |
