Predictions / Football / Ukraine. Persha Liga / Probiy Horodenka vs Prykarpattia

Prediction Audit: Probiy Horodenka vs Prykarpattia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Probiy Horodenka Probiy Horodenka
Jun 01, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Prykarpattia Prykarpattia

The model missed the final outcome (Prykarpattia win 0–3).

The model had projected Probiy Horodenka at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Probiy Horodenka Prykarpattia ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Probiy Horodenka +3.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Probiy Horodenka 41.8% 38.0% +3.8 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 28.9% -3.2 pp Aligned
Prykarpattia 32.6% 33.2% -0.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Prykarpattia win 0–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Probiy Horodenka; match finished Prykarpattia

Market lesson

The full-time result was Prykarpattia win 0–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 01, 2026 · 18:10 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Probiy Horodenka 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Prykarpattia 32.6%
    • xG · Probiy Horodenka 1.45 — Prykarpattia 1.25
  2. Jun 01, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Probiy Horodenka 2.34 · Draw 3.08 · Prykarpattia 2.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Probiy Horodenka 38.0% · Draw 28.9% · Prykarpattia 33.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 01, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Probiy Horodenka 2.34 · Draw 3.08 · Prykarpattia 2.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Probiy Horodenka 38.0% · Draw 28.9% · Prykarpattia 33.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 01, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Prykarpattia win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 81/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 07:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2585448

Closing Odds 2.34
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Prykarpattia win · Probiy Horodenka 0–3 Prykarpattia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Persha Liga
  • Fixture: Probiy Horodenka vs Prykarpattia
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-01 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Probiy Horodenka 1.45 — Prykarpattia 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 62.3% · Implied: 53.3% · Probability edge: +9.0 pts · Est. EV: +8.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.3% · No 55.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Persha Liga Persha Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bukovyna 30 26 3 1 81
2 Chornomorets 30 19 8 3 65
3 Livyi Bereh 30 19 6 5 63
4 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 30 16 5 9 53
5 Inhulets 30 12 10 8 46
6 Prykarpattia 30 9 10 11 37
7 Metal Kharkiv 30 10 7 13 37
8 Probiy Horodenka 30 10 6 14 36
9 Yarud Mariupol' 30 9 9 12 36
10 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 30 10 6 14 36
11 UCSA 30 10 6 14 36
12 Nyva Ternopil 30 8 10 12 34
13 Chernihiv 30 8 7 15 31
14 Vorskla Poltava 30 7 9 14 30
15 Podillya Khmelnytskyi 30 4 9 17 21
16 Metalurh Zaporizhya 30 4 7 19 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bukovyna 30 74 21 +53 81
2 Livyi Bereh 30 50 21 +29 63
3 Chornomorets 30 44 20 +24 65
4 Inhulets 30 41 32 +9 46
5 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 30 37 38 -1 36
6 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 30 36 28 +8 53
7 Prykarpattia 30 33 33 0 37
8 Yarud Mariupol' 30 31 32 -1 36
9 Metal Kharkiv 30 31 35 -4 37
10 Chernihiv 30 30 36 -6 31
11 UCSA 30 30 40 -10 36
12 Probiy Horodenka 30 29 37 -8 36
13 Nyva Ternopil 30 24 34 -10 34
14 Vorskla Poltava 30 23 36 -13 30
15 Podillya Khmelnytskyi 30 20 45 -25 21
16 Metalurh Zaporizhya 30 16 61 -45 19
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