Predictions / Football / Ukraine. Persha Liga / UCSA vs Nyva Ternopil

Prediction Audit: UCSA vs Nyva Ternopil Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

UCSA UCSA
Jun 01, 2026 - 10:00
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Nyva Ternopil Nyva Ternopil

AI correctly predicted the UCSA win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 UCSA UCSA ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Draw -5.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
UCSA 41.8% 37.2% +4.5 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 31.1% -5.4 pp Market Higher
Nyva Ternopil 32.6% 31.7% +0.9 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Draw's win probability at 31.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.7%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (UCSA win 3–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced UCSA higher (47.2% vs model 41.8%, 5.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (UCSA win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 01, 2026 · 18:10 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · UCSA 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Nyva Ternopil 32.6%
    • xG · UCSA 1.45 — Nyva Ternopil 1.25
  2. Jun 01, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · UCSA 2.39 · Draw 2.86 · Nyva Ternopil 2.81
    • Implied 1X2 · UCSA 37.2% · Draw 31.1% · Nyva Ternopil 31.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 01, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · UCSA 2.39 · Draw 2.86 · Nyva Ternopil 2.81
    • Implied 1X2 · UCSA 37.2% · Draw 31.1% · Nyva Ternopil 31.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 01, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result UCSA win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 72/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 22:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1653109

Closing Odds 2.86
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result UCSA win · UCSA 3–0 Nyva Ternopil
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Persha Liga
  • Fixture: UCSA vs Nyva Ternopil
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-01 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): UCSA 1.45 — Nyva Ternopil 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 72.3% · Implied: 53.0% · Probability edge: +19.3 pts · Est. EV: +27.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 27.7% · No 72.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (14.1%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Persha Liga Persha Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bukovyna 30 26 3 1 81
2 Chornomorets 30 19 8 3 65
3 Livyi Bereh 30 19 6 5 63
4 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 30 16 5 9 53
5 Inhulets 30 12 10 8 46
6 Prykarpattia 30 9 10 11 37
7 Metal Kharkiv 30 10 7 13 37
8 Probiy Horodenka 30 10 6 14 36
9 Yarud Mariupol' 30 9 9 12 36
10 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 30 10 6 14 36
11 UCSA 30 10 6 14 36
12 Nyva Ternopil 30 8 10 12 34
13 Chernihiv 30 8 7 15 31
14 Vorskla Poltava 30 7 9 14 30
15 Podillya Khmelnytskyi 30 4 9 17 21
16 Metalurh Zaporizhya 30 4 7 19 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bukovyna 30 74 21 +53 81
2 Livyi Bereh 30 50 21 +29 63
3 Chornomorets 30 44 20 +24 65
4 Inhulets 30 41 32 +9 46
5 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 30 37 38 -1 36
6 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 30 36 28 +8 53
7 Prykarpattia 30 33 33 0 37
8 Yarud Mariupol' 30 31 32 -1 36
9 Metal Kharkiv 30 31 35 -4 37
10 Chernihiv 30 30 36 -6 31
11 UCSA 30 30 40 -10 36
12 Probiy Horodenka 30 29 37 -8 36
13 Nyva Ternopil 30 24 34 -10 34
14 Vorskla Poltava 30 23 36 -13 30
15 Podillya Khmelnytskyi 30 20 45 -25 21
16 Metalurh Zaporizhya 30 16 61 -45 19
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