Prediction Audit: Vorskla Poltava vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vorskla Poltava

May 30, 2026 - 10:00

1 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 82%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Vorskla Poltava at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Vorskla Poltava Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Vorskla Poltava	41.8%	57.5%	-15.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	25.7%	21.3%	+4.4 pp	Aligned
Podillya Khmelnytskyi	32.6%	21.2%	+11.3 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Vorskla Poltava's win probability at 57.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 15.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Vorskla Poltava than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
1X2: model leaned Vorskla Poltava; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Vorskla Poltava by 15.7 percentage points (57.5% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

May 30, 2026 · 18:54 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vorskla Poltava 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Podillya Khmelnytskyi 32.6%
- xG · Vorskla Poltava 1.45 — Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1.25
May 30, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vorskla Poltava 1.58 · Draw 4.27 · Podillya Khmelnytskyi 4.28
- Implied 1X2 · Vorskla Poltava 57.5% · Draw 21.3% · Podillya Khmelnytskyi 21.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 30, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vorskla Poltava 1.58 · Draw 4.27 · Podillya Khmelnytskyi 4.28
- Implied 1X2 · Vorskla Poltava 57.5% · Draw 21.3% · Podillya Khmelnytskyi 21.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 30, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (16 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1912376

Closing Odds 1.58

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Vorskla Poltava 1–1 Podillya Khmelnytskyi

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Persha Liga
Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Kickoff: 2026-05-30 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Vorskla Poltava 1.45 — Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 65.0% · Over 2.5 35.0%); BTTS No (Yes 24.0% · No 76.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 24.0% · No 76.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (14.1%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Persha Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Bukovyna	30	26	3	1	81
2	Chornomorets	30	19	8	3	65
3	Livyi Bereh	30	19	6	5	63
4	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	30	16	5	9	53
5	Inhulets	30	12	10	8	46
6	Prykarpattia	30	9	10	11	37
7	Metal Kharkiv	30	10	7	13	37
8	Probiy Horodenka	30	10	6	14	36
9	Yarud Mariupol'	30	9	9	12	36
10	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	30	10	6	14	36
11	UCSA	30	10	6	14	36
12	Nyva Ternopil	30	8	10	12	34
13	Chernihiv	30	8	7	15	31
14	Vorskla Poltava	30	7	9	14	30
15	Podillya Khmelnytskyi	30	4	9	17	21
16	Metalurh Zaporizhya	30	4	7	19	19

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bukovyna	30	74	21	+53	81
2	Livyi Bereh	30	50	21	+29	63
3	Chornomorets	30	44	20	+24	65
4	Inhulets	30	41	32	+9	46
5	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	30	37	38	-1	36
6	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	30	36	28	+8	53
7	Prykarpattia	30	33	33	0	37
8	Yarud Mariupol'	30	31	32	-1	36
9	Metal Kharkiv	30	31	35	-4	37
10	Chernihiv	30	30	36	-6	31
11	UCSA	30	30	40	-10	36
12	Probiy Horodenka	30	29	37	-8	36
13	Nyva Ternopil	30	24	34	-10	34
14	Vorskla Poltava	30	23	36	-13	30
15	Podillya Khmelnytskyi	30	20	45	-25	21
16	Metalurh Zaporizhya	30	16	61	-45	19