The model missed the final outcome (Vorskla Poltava win 1–2).
The model had projected Chernihiv at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
C
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Chernihiv Vorskla Poltava ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Chernihiv; match finished Vorskla Poltava
Market lesson
The full-time result was Vorskla Poltava win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Chernihiv 1.45 — Vorskla Poltava 1.25
-
Apr 26, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Vorskla Poltava win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Vorskla Poltava win · Chernihiv 1–2 Vorskla Poltava
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Persha Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bukovyna | 30 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 81 |
| 2 | Chornomorets | 30 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 65 |
| 3 | Livyi Bereh | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 63 |
| 4 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 53 |
| 5 | Inhulets | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 46 |
| 6 | Prykarpattia | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 37 |
| 7 | Metal Kharkiv | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 37 |
| 8 | Probiy Horodenka | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36 |
| 9 | Yarud Mariupol' | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 10 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36 |
| 11 | UCSA | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36 |
| 12 | Nyva Ternopil | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 34 |
| 13 | Chernihiv | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 31 |
| 14 | Vorskla Poltava | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 30 |
| 15 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 21 |
| 16 | Metalurh Zaporizhya | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 19 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bukovyna | 30 | 74 | 21 | +53 | 81 |
| 2 | Livyi Bereh | 30 | 50 | 21 | +29 | 63 |
| 3 | Chornomorets | 30 | 44 | 20 | +24 | 65 |
| 4 | Inhulets | 30 | 41 | 32 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 30 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 36 |
| 6 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 30 | 36 | 28 | +8 | 53 |
| 7 | Prykarpattia | 30 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 37 |
| 8 | Yarud Mariupol' | 30 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 36 |
| 9 | Metal Kharkiv | 30 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 37 |
| 10 | Chernihiv | 30 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 31 |
| 11 | UCSA | 30 | 30 | 40 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Probiy Horodenka | 30 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 36 |
| 13 | Nyva Ternopil | 30 | 24 | 34 | -10 | 34 |
| 14 | Vorskla Poltava | 30 | 23 | 36 | -13 | 30 |
| 15 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 30 | 20 | 45 | -25 | 21 |
| 16 | Metalurh Zaporizhya | 30 | 16 | 61 | -45 | 19 |
