Predictions / Football / Russia. Premier League / Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow

Prediction Audit: Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nizhny Novgorod Nizhny Novgorod
May 11, 2026 - 12:15
1 1.33
2 1.13
xG Accuracy: 72%
CSKA Moscow CSKA Moscow

The model missed the final outcome (CSKA Moscow win 1–2).

The model had projected Nizhny Novgorod at 39.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Nizhny Novgorod CSKA Moscow ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices CSKA Moscow higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: CSKA Moscow -13.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Nizhny Novgorod 39.6% 28.2% +11.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 30.4% 28.2% +2.2 pp Aligned
CSKA Moscow 30.0% 43.6% -13.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates CSKA Moscow's win probability at 43.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.0%, a difference of 13.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was CSKA Moscow win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about CSKA Moscow than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Nizhny Novgorod by 13.6 percentage points (53.2% vs model 39.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 11, 2026 · 12:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Nizhny Novgorod 39.5% · Draw 30.4% · CSKA Moscow 30.0%
    • xG · Nizhny Novgorod 1.33 — CSKA Moscow 1.13
  2. May 09, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Nizhny Novgorod 3.64 · Draw 3.55 · CSKA Moscow 2.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Nizhny Novgorod 26.1% · Draw 26.8% · CSKA Moscow 47.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 11, 2026 · 12:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Nizhny Novgorod 3.43 · Draw 3.43 · CSKA Moscow 2.22
    • Implied 1X2 · Nizhny Novgorod 28.2% · Draw 28.2% · CSKA Moscow 43.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 11, 2026 · 12:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result CSKA Moscow win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1659073

Closing Odds 2.22
AI Fair Odds 2.53
CLV Pending
Final Result CSKA Moscow win · Nizhny Novgorod 1–2 CSKA Moscow
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 39.6%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-11 12:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.6% · Draw 30.4% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Nizhny Novgorod 1.33 — CSKA Moscow 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.46)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 55.4% · Implied: 50.2% · Probability edge: +5.2 pts · Est. EV: +8.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 51.5% · No 48.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.8%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zenit 30 20 8 2 68
2 FC Krasnodar 30 20 6 4 66
3 Lokomotiv 30 14 11 5 53
4 Spartak Moscow 30 15 7 8 52
5 CSKA Moscow 30 15 6 9 51
6 Baltika 30 11 13 6 46
7 Dynamo 30 12 9 9 45
8 Rubin 30 11 10 9 43
9 Akhmat 30 9 10 11 37
10 FC Rostov 30 8 9 13 33
11 Krylia Sovetov 30 8 8 14 32
12 FC Orenburg 30 7 8 15 29
13 Akron 30 6 9 15 27
14 Makhachkala 30 5 11 14 26
15 Nizhny Novgorod 30 6 5 19 23
16 FC Sochi 30 6 4 20 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Krasnodar 30 60 23 +37 66
2 Lokomotiv 30 54 39 +15 53
3 Zenit 30 53 19 +34 68
4 Dynamo 30 51 40 +11 45
5 Spartak Moscow 30 47 39 +8 52
6 CSKA Moscow 30 44 33 +11 51
7 Baltika 30 38 21 +17 46
8 Akhmat 30 35 39 -4 37
9 Krylia Sovetov 30 35 50 -15 32
10 Akron 30 35 53 -18 27
11 Rubin 30 29 30 -1 43
12 FC Orenburg 30 29 44 -15 29
13 FC Sochi 30 29 60 -31 22
14 Nizhny Novgorod 30 26 50 -24 23
15 FC Rostov 30 25 32 -7 33
16 Makhachkala 30 19 37 -18 26
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC Krasnodar 30 27.6 15.2 +12.4 66
2 Zenit 30 25.0 14.1 +10.9 68
3 Lokomotiv 30 26.7 20.4 +6.3 53
4 Dynamo 30 23.7 18.5 +5.2 45
5 Spartak Moscow 30 22.8 19.0 +3.8 52
6 Baltika 30 22.2 18.6 +3.6 46
7 Rubin 30 19.1 16.8 +2.3 43
8 FC Rostov 30 19.1 17.2 +1.9 33
9 Akhmat 30 20.2 19.3 +0.9 37
10 CSKA Moscow 30 23.4 24.7 -1.3 51
11 Makhachkala 30 15.7 17.1 -1.4 26
12 Akron 30 21.8 24.9 -3.1 27
13 FC Orenburg 30 18.4 23.8 -5.4 29
14 Nizhny Novgorod 30 16.7 25.0 -8.3 23
15 Krylia Sovetov 30 12.9 26.0 -13.1 32
16 FC Sochi 30 12.1 27.1 -15.0 22