Prediction Audit: Salyut-Belgorod vs Rotor-2 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Salyut-Belgorod

Aug 22, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.57

0 1.03

xG Accuracy: 64%

Rotor-2

AI correctly predicted the Salyut-Belgorod win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Salyut-Belgorod Salyut-Belgorod ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Salyut-Belgorod	48.3%	70.7%	-22.4 pp	Market Higher
Draw	28.4%	20.2%	+8.2 pp	Model Higher
Rotor-2	23.3%	9.1%	+14.2 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Salyut-Belgorod's win probability at 70.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 48.3%, a difference of 22.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Salyut-Belgorod win 1–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Salyut-Belgorod attacking xG significantly stronger (1.57 vs 1.03)
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Salyut-Belgorod higher (70.7% vs model 48.3%, 22.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Salyut-Belgorod win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 22, 2026 · 13:54 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Salyut-Belgorod 48.3% · Draw 28.4% · Rotor-2 23.3%
- xG · Salyut-Belgorod 1.57 — Rotor-2 1.03
Aug 22, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Salyut-Belgorod 1.27 · Draw 4.45 · Rotor-2 9.90
- Implied 1X2 · Salyut-Belgorod 70.7% · Draw 20.2% · Rotor-2 9.1%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Aug 22, 2026 · 13:54 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Salyut-Belgorod 1.27 · Draw 4.45 · Rotor-2 9.90
- Implied 1X2 · Salyut-Belgorod 70.7% · Draw 20.2% · Rotor-2 9.1%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Aug 22, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Salyut-Belgorod win · 1–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (22 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4224500

Closing Odds 1.27

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Salyut-Belgorod win · Salyut-Belgorod 1–0 Rotor-2

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Second League - Group 3
Fixture: Salyut-Belgorod vs Rotor-2
Kickoff: 2026-08-22 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 48.3% · Draw 28.4% · Away 23.3%
xG (showing): Salyut-Belgorod 1.57 — Rotor-2 1.03 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.5% · No 47.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 52.5% · No 47.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.0%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League - Group 3 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	18	2	2	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	17	2	3	53
3	Shumbrat	22	12	4	6	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	12	4	6	40
5	Ryazan	21	11	7	3	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	12	3	7	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	11	5	6	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	8	6	8	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	8	4	10	28
10	Strogino	22	7	4	11	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	7	3	12	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	7	2	12	23
13	Orel	22	6	5	11	23
14	Rotor-2	22	4	2	16	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	2	8	12	14
16	Kvant	22	1	3	18	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	47	13	+34	56
2	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	41	27	+14	38
3	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	41	31	+10	40
4	Shumbrat	22	40	29	+11	40
5	Rodina Moskva III	22	38	35	+3	28
6	FK Spartak Tambov	22	37	12	+25	53
7	Salyut-Belgorod	22	37	21	+16	39
8	Ryazan	21	35	13	+22	40
9	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	30	38	-8	24
10	Avangard Kursk	22	28	29	-1	30
11	Strogino	22	26	36	-10	25
12	Orel	22	26	39	-13	23
13	Zenit Penza	21	24	40	-16	23
14	Kvant	22	22	64	-42	6
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	19	44	-25	14
16	Rotor-2	22	15	35	-20	14