Predictions / Football / England. National League / Scunthorpe vs Boston United

Prediction Audit: Scunthorpe vs Boston United Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Scunthorpe Scunthorpe
Feb 14, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.49
6 1.23
xG Accuracy: 18%
Boston United Boston United

The model missed the final outcome (Boston United win 3–6).

The model had projected Scunthorpe at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Scunthorpe Boston United ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 3-6 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 9 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Scunthorpe; match finished Boston United
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Boston United win 3–6, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Scunthorpe 1.49 — Boston United 1.23
  2. Feb 14, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Boston United win · 3–6
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 17:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2637430

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Boston United win · Scunthorpe 3–6 Boston United
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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National League National League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 York 46 33 9 4 108
2 Rochdale 46 33 7 6 106
3 Carlisle 46 29 8 9 95
4 Boreham Wood 46 27 9 10 90
5 Scunthorpe 46 23 13 10 82
6 Southend 46 23 12 11 81
7 Forest Green 46 23 12 11 81
8 FC Halifax Town 46 20 10 16 70
9 Hartlepool 46 18 14 14 68
10 Woking 46 16 15 15 63
11 Tamworth 46 17 11 18 62
12 Boston United 46 15 14 17 59
13 Altrincham 46 17 6 23 57
14 Solihull Moors 46 14 14 18 56
15 Wealdstone 46 15 11 20 56
16 Yeovil Town 46 15 6 25 51
17 Eastleigh 46 13 11 22 50
18 Gateshead 46 14 8 24 50
19 Sutton Utd 46 11 14 21 47
20 Aldershot Town 46 13 7 26 46
21 Brackley Town 46 10 12 24 42
22 Morecambe 46 9 11 26 38
23 Braintree 46 8 12 26 36
24 Truro City 46 8 10 28 34
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 York 46 114 41 +73 108
2 Boreham Wood 46 95 58 +37 90
3 Rochdale 46 88 41 +47 106
4 Carlisle 46 87 51 +36 95
5 Southend 46 83 47 +36 81
6 Forest Green 46 82 52 +30 81
7 Scunthorpe 46 77 62 +15 82
8 Solihull Moors 46 71 72 -1 56
9 Woking 46 69 54 +15 63
10 FC Halifax Town 46 69 66 +3 70
11 Aldershot Town 46 69 87 -18 46
12 Wealdstone 46 67 74 -7 56
13 Morecambe 46 66 103 -37 38
14 Boston United 46 63 67 -4 59
15 Tamworth 46 63 71 -8 62
16 Sutton Utd 46 59 79 -20 47
17 Eastleigh 46 57 80 -23 50
18 Altrincham 46 55 65 -10 57
19 Hartlepool 46 54 59 -5 68
20 Gateshead 46 54 90 -36 50
21 Yeovil Town 46 48 68 -20 51
22 Truro City 46 42 72 -30 34
23 Brackley Town 46 40 75 -35 42
24 Braintree 46 38 76 -38 36