Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Tweede Divisie / Ijsselmeervogels vs ACV

Prediction Audit: Ijsselmeervogels vs ACV Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ijsselmeervogels Ijsselmeervogels
May 23, 2026 - 13:30
2 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 40%
ACV ACV

The model missed the final outcome (ACV win 2–4).

The model had projected Ijsselmeervogels at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ijsselmeervogels ACV ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices ACV higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: ACV -7.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ijsselmeervogels 41.8% 39.0% +2.8 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 21.4% +4.2 pp Aligned
ACV 32.6% 39.5% -7.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates ACV's win probability at 39.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was ACV win 2–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on ACV. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ijsselmeervogels by 7.0 percentage points (48.8% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ijsselmeervogels 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · ACV 32.6%
    • xG · Ijsselmeervogels 1.45 — ACV 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ijsselmeervogels 2.32 · Draw 4.22 · ACV 2.29
    • Implied 1X2 · Ijsselmeervogels 39.0% · Draw 21.4% · ACV 39.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ijsselmeervogels 2.32 · Draw 4.22 · ACV 2.29
    • Implied 1X2 · Ijsselmeervogels 39.0% · Draw 21.4% · ACV 39.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 23, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result ACV win · 2–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1461281

Closing Odds 2.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result ACV win · Ijsselmeervogels 2–4 ACV
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tweede Divisie
  • Fixture: Ijsselmeervogels vs ACV
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Ijsselmeervogels 1.45 — ACV 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 57.8% · Implied: 34.2% · Probability edge: +23.6 pts · Est. EV: +66.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 42.2% · No 57.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Tweede Divisie Tweede Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Quick Boys 34 19 10 5 66
2 De Treffers 34 18 9 7 63
3 Hoek 34 19 6 9 63
4 Rijnsburgse Boys 34 16 8 10 56
5 HHC 34 17 5 12 56
6 Spakenburg 34 16 8 10 56
7 Katwijk 34 15 7 12 52
8 Almere City II 34 15 5 14 50
9 Kozakken Boys 34 13 8 13 47
10 Sparta Rotterdam II 34 12 9 13 45
11 AFC Amsterdam 34 12 9 13 45
12 Barendrecht 34 13 4 17 43
13 RKAV Volendam 34 13 3 18 42
14 GVVV Veenendaal 34 12 6 16 42
15 Koninklijke HFC 34 12 3 19 39
16 Ijsselmeervogels 34 9 4 21 31
17 Excelsior Maassluis 34 8 7 19 31
18 ACV 34 7 9 18 30
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rijnsburgse Boys 34 76 55 +21 56
2 Spakenburg 34 72 60 +12 56
3 Sparta Rotterdam II 34 71 73 -2 45
4 Almere City II 34 70 62 +8 50
5 Quick Boys 34 69 35 +34 66
6 De Treffers 34 64 37 +27 63
7 Barendrecht 34 62 84 -22 43
8 Hoek 34 60 37 +23 63
9 Katwijk 34 60 55 +5 52
10 HHC 34 58 44 +14 56
11 GVVV Veenendaal 34 52 67 -15 42
12 RKAV Volendam 34 50 62 -12 42
13 ACV 34 48 71 -23 30
14 Kozakken Boys 34 47 55 -8 47
15 AFC Amsterdam 34 46 54 -8 45
16 Ijsselmeervogels 34 46 65 -19 31
17 Excelsior Maassluis 34 39 58 -19 31
18 Koninklijke HFC 34 33 49 -16 39
Tweede Divisie Netherlands. Tweede Divisie Predictions