Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Tweede Divisie / De Treffers vs Spakenburg

Prediction Audit: De Treffers vs Spakenburg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

De Treffers De Treffers
May 09, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 48%
Spakenburg Spakenburg

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected De Treffers at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 De Treffers Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices De Treffers higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: De Treffers -10.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
De Treffers 41.8% 52.0% -10.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 22.1% +3.6 pp Aligned
Spakenburg 32.6% 26.0% +6.6 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates De Treffers's win probability at 52.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about De Treffers than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on De Treffers by 10.2 percentage points (52.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · De Treffers 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Spakenburg 32.6%
    • xG · De Treffers 1.45 — Spakenburg 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · De Treffers 1.74 · Draw 4.10 · Spakenburg 3.48
    • Implied 1X2 · De Treffers 52.0% · Draw 22.1% · Spakenburg 26.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · De Treffers 1.74 · Draw 4.10 · Spakenburg 3.48
    • Implied 1X2 · De Treffers 52.0% · Draw 22.1% · Spakenburg 26.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 49/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1465396

Closing Odds 1.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · De Treffers 0–0 Spakenburg
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tweede Divisie
  • Fixture: De Treffers vs Spakenburg
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): De Treffers 1.45 — Spakenburg 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 84.5% · Implied: 66.1% · Probability edge: +18.4 pts · Est. EV: +18.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 84.5% · No 15.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Tweede Divisie Tweede Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Quick Boys 34 19 10 5 66
2 De Treffers 34 18 9 7 63
3 Hoek 34 19 6 9 63
4 Rijnsburgse Boys 34 16 8 10 56
5 HHC 34 17 5 12 56
6 Spakenburg 34 16 8 10 56
7 Katwijk 34 15 7 12 52
8 Almere City II 34 15 5 14 50
9 Kozakken Boys 34 13 8 13 47
10 Sparta Rotterdam II 34 12 9 13 45
11 AFC Amsterdam 34 12 9 13 45
12 Barendrecht 34 13 4 17 43
13 RKAV Volendam 34 13 3 18 42
14 GVVV Veenendaal 34 12 6 16 42
15 Koninklijke HFC 34 12 3 19 39
16 Ijsselmeervogels 34 9 4 21 31
17 Excelsior Maassluis 34 8 7 19 31
18 ACV 34 7 9 18 30
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rijnsburgse Boys 34 76 55 +21 56
2 Spakenburg 34 72 60 +12 56
3 Sparta Rotterdam II 34 71 73 -2 45
4 Almere City II 34 70 62 +8 50
5 Quick Boys 34 69 35 +34 66
6 De Treffers 34 64 37 +27 63
7 Barendrecht 34 62 84 -22 43
8 Hoek 34 60 37 +23 63
9 Katwijk 34 60 55 +5 52
10 HHC 34 58 44 +14 56
11 GVVV Veenendaal 34 52 67 -15 42
12 RKAV Volendam 34 50 62 -12 42
13 ACV 34 48 71 -23 30
14 Kozakken Boys 34 47 55 -8 47
15 AFC Amsterdam 34 46 54 -8 45
16 Ijsselmeervogels 34 46 65 -19 31
17 Excelsior Maassluis 34 39 58 -19 31
18 Koninklijke HFC 34 33 49 -16 39
Tweede Divisie Netherlands. Tweede Divisie Predictions