Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - West / Wals-Grünau vs SVG Reichenau

Prediction Audit: Wals-Grünau vs SVG Reichenau Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wals-Grünau Wals-Grünau
Jun 13, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.19
1 1.37
xG Accuracy: 55%
SVG Reichenau SVG Reichenau

The model missed the final outcome (Wals-Grünau win 3–1).

The model had projected SVG Reichenau at 37.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SVG Reichenau Wals-Grünau ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Wals-Grünau higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Wals-Grünau -11.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Wals-Grünau 35.0% 46.8% -11.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.7% 21.3% +6.4 pp Model Higher
SVG Reichenau 37.3% 31.9% +5.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Wals-Grünau's win probability at 46.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.0%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Wals-Grünau win 3–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Wals-Grünau than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.56) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned SVG Reichenau; match finished Wals-Grünau

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on SVG Reichenau by 11.8 percentage points (49.1% vs model 37.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 13, 2026 · 20:16 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Wals-Grünau 35.0% · Draw 27.7% · SVG Reichenau 37.3%
    • xG · Wals-Grünau 1.19 — SVG Reichenau 1.37
  2. Jun 13, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Wals-Grünau 1.90 · Draw 4.18 · SVG Reichenau 2.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Wals-Grünau 46.8% · Draw 21.3% · SVG Reichenau 31.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 13, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Wals-Grünau 1.90 · Draw 4.18 · SVG Reichenau 2.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Wals-Grünau 46.8% · Draw 21.3% · SVG Reichenau 31.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 13, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wals-Grünau win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3060119

Closing Odds 1.9
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wals-Grünau win · Wals-Grünau 3–1 SVG Reichenau
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: Wals-Grünau vs SVG Reichenau
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Wals-Grünau 1.19 — SVG Reichenau 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.56)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wacker Innsbruck 31 27 2 2 83
2 Kuchl 31 21 2 8 65
3 Seekirchen 31 19 4 8 61
4 Imst 31 18 7 6 61
5 Dornbirn 31 16 4 11 52
6 Bischofshofen 31 16 3 12 51
7 SVG Reichenau 31 14 3 14 45
8 Hohenems 31 11 11 9 44
9 Schwaz 32 13 5 14 44
10 Kitzbühel 31 13 4 14 43
11 Wals-Grünau 31 10 8 13 38
12 TSV St. Johann 31 9 5 17 32
13 Lustenau 31 8 7 16 31
14 Rheindorf Altach II 31 7 6 18 27
15 Kufstein 31 5 10 16 25
16 Pinzgau Saalfelden 31 6 6 19 24
17 Lauterach 31 5 5 21 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wacker Innsbruck 31 83 18 +65 83
2 Seekirchen 31 82 47 +35 61
3 Imst 31 68 38 +30 61
4 Kuchl 31 61 40 +21 65
5 Dornbirn 31 61 44 +17 52
6 Bischofshofen 31 58 42 +16 51
7 Schwaz 32 57 56 +1 44
8 Hohenems 31 53 49 +4 44
9 Wals-Grünau 31 53 64 -11 38
10 Lustenau 31 46 77 -31 31
11 TSV St. Johann 31 44 55 -11 32
12 SVG Reichenau 31 43 52 -9 45
13 Kitzbühel 31 42 43 -1 43
14 Lauterach 31 40 78 -38 20
15 Rheindorf Altach II 31 35 70 -35 27
16 Kufstein 31 31 49 -18 25
17 Pinzgau Saalfelden 31 24 59 -35 24
Regionalliga - West Austria. Regionalliga - West Predictions