Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - West / Imst vs Kuchl

Prediction Audit: Imst vs Kuchl Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Imst Imst
Jun 12, 2026 - 17:30
3 1.31
0 1.17
xG Accuracy: 46%
Kuchl Kuchl

AI correctly predicted the Imst win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Imst Imst ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Imst higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Imst -14.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Imst 38.1% 52.9% -14.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 30.4% 20.1% +10.3 pp Model Edge
Kuchl 31.5% 27.0% +4.5 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Imst's win probability at 52.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.1%, a difference of 14.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Imst win 3–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Imst than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Imst higher (52.9% vs model 38.1%, 14.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Imst win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 12, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Imst 38.2% · Draw 30.4% · Kuchl 31.4%
    • xG · Imst 1.31 — Kuchl 1.17
  2. Jun 12, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Imst 1.70 · Draw 4.48 · Kuchl 3.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Imst 52.9% · Draw 20.1% · Kuchl 27.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 12, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Imst 1.70 · Draw 4.48 · Kuchl 3.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Imst 52.9% · Draw 20.1% · Kuchl 27.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 12, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Imst win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 26/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1717099

Closing Odds 1.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Imst win · Imst 3–0 Kuchl
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: Imst vs Kuchl
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-12 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.2% · Draw 30.4% · Away 31.4%
  • xG (showing): Imst 1.31 — Kuchl 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.48)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 54.9% · Implied: 29.3% · Probability edge: +25.6 pts · Est. EV: +81.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.0% · No 48.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wacker Innsbruck 31 27 2 2 83
2 Kuchl 31 21 2 8 65
3 Seekirchen 31 19 4 8 61
4 Imst 31 18 7 6 61
5 Dornbirn 31 16 4 11 52
6 Bischofshofen 31 16 3 12 51
7 SVG Reichenau 31 14 3 14 45
8 Hohenems 31 11 11 9 44
9 Schwaz 32 13 5 14 44
10 Kitzbühel 31 13 4 14 43
11 Wals-Grünau 31 10 8 13 38
12 TSV St. Johann 31 9 5 17 32
13 Lustenau 31 8 7 16 31
14 Rheindorf Altach II 31 7 6 18 27
15 Kufstein 31 5 10 16 25
16 Pinzgau Saalfelden 31 6 6 19 24
17 Lauterach 31 5 5 21 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wacker Innsbruck 31 83 18 +65 83
2 Seekirchen 31 82 47 +35 61
3 Imst 31 68 38 +30 61
4 Kuchl 31 61 40 +21 65
5 Dornbirn 31 61 44 +17 52
6 Bischofshofen 31 58 42 +16 51
7 Schwaz 32 57 56 +1 44
8 Hohenems 31 53 49 +4 44
9 Wals-Grünau 31 53 64 -11 38
10 Lustenau 31 46 77 -31 31
11 TSV St. Johann 31 44 55 -11 32
12 SVG Reichenau 31 43 52 -9 45
13 Kitzbühel 31 42 43 -1 43
14 Lauterach 31 40 78 -38 20
15 Rheindorf Altach II 31 35 70 -35 27
16 Kufstein 31 31 49 -18 25
17 Pinzgau Saalfelden 31 24 59 -35 24
Regionalliga - West Austria. Regionalliga - West Predictions