Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - West / TSV St. Johann vs Wacker Innsbruck

Prediction Audit: TSV St. Johann vs Wacker Innsbruck Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

TSV St. Johann TSV St. Johann
Jun 07, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.11
2 1.37
xG Accuracy: 82%
Wacker Innsbruck Wacker Innsbruck

AI correctly predicted the Wacker Innsbruck win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Wacker Innsbruck Wacker Innsbruck ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Wacker Innsbruck higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Wacker Innsbruck -22.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
TSV St. Johann 23.0% 12.2% +10.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 26.2% 14.8% +11.4 pp Model Edge
Wacker Innsbruck 50.8% 73.0% -22.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Wacker Innsbruck's win probability at 73.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 50.8%, a difference of 22.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Wacker Innsbruck win 1–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Wacker Innsbruck higher (73.0% vs model 50.8%, 22.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Wacker Innsbruck win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 07, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · TSV St. Johann 23.0% · Draw 26.2% · Wacker Innsbruck 50.8%
    • xG · TSV St. Johann 1.11 — Wacker Innsbruck 1.37
  2. Jun 07, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · TSV St. Johann 7.21 · Draw 5.97 · Wacker Innsbruck 1.21
    • Implied 1X2 · TSV St. Johann 12.2% · Draw 14.8% · Wacker Innsbruck 73.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 07, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · TSV St. Johann 7.21 · Draw 5.97 · Wacker Innsbruck 1.21
    • Implied 1X2 · TSV St. Johann 12.2% · Draw 14.8% · Wacker Innsbruck 73.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 07, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wacker Innsbruck win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1483202

Closing Odds 1.21
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wacker Innsbruck win · TSV St. Johann 1–2 Wacker Innsbruck
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: TSV St. Johann vs Wacker Innsbruck
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-07 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 23.0% · Draw 26.2% · Away 50.8%
  • xG (showing): TSV St. Johann 1.11 — Wacker Innsbruck 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.48)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 54.9% · Over 2.5 45.1%); BTTS No (Yes 51.7% · No 48.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 51.7% · No 48.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.7%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wacker Innsbruck 31 27 2 2 83
2 Kuchl 31 21 2 8 65
3 Seekirchen 31 19 4 8 61
4 Imst 31 18 7 6 61
5 Dornbirn 31 16 4 11 52
6 Bischofshofen 31 16 3 12 51
7 SVG Reichenau 31 14 3 14 45
8 Hohenems 31 11 11 9 44
9 Schwaz 32 13 5 14 44
10 Kitzbühel 31 13 4 14 43
11 Wals-Grünau 31 10 8 13 38
12 TSV St. Johann 31 9 5 17 32
13 Lustenau 31 8 7 16 31
14 Rheindorf Altach II 31 7 6 18 27
15 Kufstein 31 5 10 16 25
16 Pinzgau Saalfelden 31 6 6 19 24
17 Lauterach 31 5 5 21 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wacker Innsbruck 31 83 18 +65 83
2 Seekirchen 31 82 47 +35 61
3 Imst 31 68 38 +30 61
4 Kuchl 31 61 40 +21 65
5 Dornbirn 31 61 44 +17 52
6 Bischofshofen 31 58 42 +16 51
7 Schwaz 32 57 56 +1 44
8 Hohenems 31 53 49 +4 44
9 Wals-Grünau 31 53 64 -11 38
10 Lustenau 31 46 77 -31 31
11 TSV St. Johann 31 44 55 -11 32
12 SVG Reichenau 31 43 52 -9 45
13 Kitzbühel 31 42 43 -1 43
14 Lauterach 31 40 78 -38 20
15 Rheindorf Altach II 31 35 70 -35 27
16 Kufstein 31 31 49 -18 25
17 Pinzgau Saalfelden 31 24 59 -35 24
Regionalliga - West Austria. Regionalliga - West Predictions