Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - West / Seekirchen vs Wals-Grünau

Prediction Audit: Seekirchen vs Wals-Grünau Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Seekirchen Seekirchen
Jun 06, 2026 - 12:00
4 1.48
2 1.00
xG Accuracy: 38%
Wals-Grünau Wals-Grünau

AI correctly predicted the Seekirchen win.

The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Seekirchen Seekirchen ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Seekirchen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Seekirchen -21.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Seekirchen 46.7% 68.2% -21.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 16.4% +13.1 pp Model Edge
Wals-Grünau 23.9% 15.5% +8.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Seekirchen's win probability at 68.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.7%, a difference of 21.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Seekirchen win 4–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Seekirchen attacking xG significantly stronger (1.48 vs 1.00)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Seekirchen higher (68.2% vs model 46.7%, 21.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Seekirchen win 4–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 07, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Seekirchen 46.7% · Draw 29.4% · Wals-Grünau 23.9%
    • xG · Seekirchen 1.48 — Wals-Grünau 1.00
  2. Jun 07, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Seekirchen 1.30 · Draw 5.42 · Wals-Grünau 5.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Seekirchen 68.2% · Draw 16.4% · Wals-Grünau 15.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 07, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Seekirchen 1.30 · Draw 5.42 · Wals-Grünau 5.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Seekirchen 68.2% · Draw 16.4% · Wals-Grünau 15.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 06, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Seekirchen win · 4–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 07:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1565073

Closing Odds 1.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Seekirchen win · Seekirchen 4–2 Wals-Grünau
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: Seekirchen vs Wals-Grünau
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-07 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.7% · Draw 29.4% · Away 23.9%
  • xG (showing): Seekirchen 1.48 — Wals-Grünau 1.0 (total xG ≈ 2.48)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 54.9% · Over 2.5 45.1%); BTTS No (Yes 50.4% · No 49.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 50.4% · No 49.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wacker Innsbruck 31 27 2 2 83
2 Kuchl 31 21 2 8 65
3 Seekirchen 31 19 4 8 61
4 Imst 31 18 7 6 61
5 Dornbirn 31 16 4 11 52
6 Bischofshofen 31 16 3 12 51
7 SVG Reichenau 31 14 3 14 45
8 Hohenems 31 11 11 9 44
9 Schwaz 32 13 5 14 44
10 Kitzbühel 31 13 4 14 43
11 Wals-Grünau 31 10 8 13 38
12 TSV St. Johann 31 9 5 17 32
13 Lustenau 31 8 7 16 31
14 Rheindorf Altach II 31 7 6 18 27
15 Kufstein 31 5 10 16 25
16 Pinzgau Saalfelden 31 6 6 19 24
17 Lauterach 31 5 5 21 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wacker Innsbruck 31 83 18 +65 83
2 Seekirchen 31 82 47 +35 61
3 Imst 31 68 38 +30 61
4 Kuchl 31 61 40 +21 65
5 Dornbirn 31 61 44 +17 52
6 Bischofshofen 31 58 42 +16 51
7 Schwaz 32 57 56 +1 44
8 Hohenems 31 53 49 +4 44
9 Wals-Grünau 31 53 64 -11 38
10 Lustenau 31 46 77 -31 31
11 TSV St. Johann 31 44 55 -11 32
12 SVG Reichenau 31 43 52 -9 45
13 Kitzbühel 31 42 43 -1 43
14 Lauterach 31 40 78 -38 20
15 Rheindorf Altach II 31 35 70 -35 27
16 Kufstein 31 31 49 -18 25
17 Pinzgau Saalfelden 31 24 59 -35 24
Regionalliga - West Austria. Regionalliga - West Predictions