Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - West / Schwaz vs Imst

Prediction Audit: Schwaz vs Imst Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Schwaz Schwaz
Jun 06, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.23
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 76%
Imst Imst

AI correctly predicted the Imst win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Imst Imst ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Imst higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Imst -16.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Schwaz 34.3% 26.4% +7.9 pp Model Higher
Draw 30.5% 22.0% +8.4 pp Model Higher
Imst 35.2% 51.6% -16.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Imst's win probability at 51.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 16.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Imst win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Imst than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Imst higher (51.6% vs model 35.2%, 16.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Imst win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 07, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Schwaz 34.3% · Draw 30.5% · Imst 35.2%
    • xG · Schwaz 1.23 — Imst 1.25
  2. Jun 07, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Schwaz 3.37 · Draw 4.03 · Imst 1.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Schwaz 26.4% · Draw 22.0% · Imst 51.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 07, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Schwaz 3.37 · Draw 4.03 · Imst 1.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Schwaz 26.4% · Draw 22.0% · Imst 51.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Imst win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 10:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1697155

Closing Odds 1.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Imst win · Schwaz 1–2 Imst
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: Schwaz vs Imst
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-07 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.3% · Draw 30.5% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Schwaz 1.23 — Imst 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.48)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 54.9% · Over 2.5 45.1%); BTTS No (Yes 52.2% · No 47.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.2% · No 47.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.9%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wacker Innsbruck 31 27 2 2 83
2 Kuchl 31 21 2 8 65
3 Seekirchen 31 19 4 8 61
4 Imst 31 18 7 6 61
5 Dornbirn 31 16 4 11 52
6 Bischofshofen 31 16 3 12 51
7 SVG Reichenau 31 14 3 14 45
8 Hohenems 31 11 11 9 44
9 Schwaz 32 13 5 14 44
10 Kitzbühel 31 13 4 14 43
11 Wals-Grünau 31 10 8 13 38
12 TSV St. Johann 31 9 5 17 32
13 Lustenau 31 8 7 16 31
14 Rheindorf Altach II 31 7 6 18 27
15 Kufstein 31 5 10 16 25
16 Pinzgau Saalfelden 31 6 6 19 24
17 Lauterach 31 5 5 21 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wacker Innsbruck 31 83 18 +65 83
2 Seekirchen 31 82 47 +35 61
3 Imst 31 68 38 +30 61
4 Kuchl 31 61 40 +21 65
5 Dornbirn 31 61 44 +17 52
6 Bischofshofen 31 58 42 +16 51
7 Schwaz 32 57 56 +1 44
8 Hohenems 31 53 49 +4 44
9 Wals-Grünau 31 53 64 -11 38
10 Lustenau 31 46 77 -31 31
11 TSV St. Johann 31 44 55 -11 32
12 SVG Reichenau 31 43 52 -9 45
13 Kitzbühel 31 42 43 -1 43
14 Lauterach 31 40 78 -38 20
15 Rheindorf Altach II 31 35 70 -35 27
16 Kufstein 31 31 49 -18 25
17 Pinzgau Saalfelden 31 24 59 -35 24
Regionalliga - West Austria. Regionalliga - West Predictions