Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - West / Rheindorf Altach II vs Kitzbühel

Prediction Audit: Rheindorf Altach II vs Kitzbühel Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rheindorf Altach II Rheindorf Altach II
Jun 07, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.30
5 1.18
xG Accuracy: 29%
Kitzbühel Kitzbühel

The model missed the final outcome (Kitzbühel win 2–5).

The model had projected Rheindorf Altach II at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rheindorf Altach II Kitzbühel ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 2-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Rheindorf Altach II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Rheindorf Altach II -11.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Rheindorf Altach II 39.9% 51.0% -11.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.7% 22.1% +6.6 pp Model Higher
Kitzbühel 31.4% 26.9% +4.5 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Rheindorf Altach II's win probability at 51.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 11.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Kitzbühel win 2–5.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Rheindorf Altach II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Rheindorf Altach II by 11.1 percentage points (51.0% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 07, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Rheindorf Altach II 39.8% · Draw 28.7% · Kitzbühel 31.4%
    • xG · Rheindorf Altach II 1.30 — Kitzbühel 1.18
  2. Jun 07, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Rheindorf Altach II 1.72 · Draw 3.97 · Kitzbühel 3.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Rheindorf Altach II 51.0% · Draw 22.1% · Kitzbühel 26.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 07, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Rheindorf Altach II 1.72 · Draw 3.97 · Kitzbühel 3.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Rheindorf Altach II 51.0% · Draw 22.1% · Kitzbühel 26.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 07, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kitzbühel win · 2–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 44/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 17:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1622177

Closing Odds 1.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kitzbühel win · Rheindorf Altach II 2–5 Kitzbühel
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: Rheindorf Altach II vs Kitzbühel
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-07 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.8% · Draw 28.7% · Away 31.4%
  • xG (showing): Rheindorf Altach II 1.3 — Kitzbühel 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.48)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 54.9% · Implied: 39.0% · Probability edge: +15.9 pts · Est. EV: +33.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.1% · No 47.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.8%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wacker Innsbruck 31 27 2 2 83
2 Kuchl 31 21 2 8 65
3 Seekirchen 31 19 4 8 61
4 Imst 31 18 7 6 61
5 Dornbirn 31 16 4 11 52
6 Bischofshofen 31 16 3 12 51
7 SVG Reichenau 31 14 3 14 45
8 Hohenems 31 11 11 9 44
9 Schwaz 32 13 5 14 44
10 Kitzbühel 31 13 4 14 43
11 Wals-Grünau 31 10 8 13 38
12 TSV St. Johann 31 9 5 17 32
13 Lustenau 31 8 7 16 31
14 Rheindorf Altach II 31 7 6 18 27
15 Kufstein 31 5 10 16 25
16 Pinzgau Saalfelden 31 6 6 19 24
17 Lauterach 31 5 5 21 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wacker Innsbruck 31 83 18 +65 83
2 Seekirchen 31 82 47 +35 61
3 Imst 31 68 38 +30 61
4 Kuchl 31 61 40 +21 65
5 Dornbirn 31 61 44 +17 52
6 Bischofshofen 31 58 42 +16 51
7 Schwaz 32 57 56 +1 44
8 Hohenems 31 53 49 +4 44
9 Wals-Grünau 31 53 64 -11 38
10 Lustenau 31 46 77 -31 31
11 TSV St. Johann 31 44 55 -11 32
12 SVG Reichenau 31 43 52 -9 45
13 Kitzbühel 31 42 43 -1 43
14 Lauterach 31 40 78 -38 20
15 Rheindorf Altach II 31 35 70 -35 27
16 Kufstein 31 31 49 -18 25
17 Pinzgau Saalfelden 31 24 59 -35 24
Regionalliga - West Austria. Regionalliga - West Predictions