Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - West / Schwaz vs Lauterach

Prediction Audit: Schwaz vs Lauterach Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Schwaz Schwaz
May 30, 2026 - 13:00
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Lauterach Lauterach

AI correctly predicted the Schwaz win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Schwaz Schwaz ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Schwaz higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Schwaz -34.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Schwaz 41.8% 76.6% -34.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 13.5% +12.2 pp Model Edge
Lauterach 32.6% 9.9% +22.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Schwaz's win probability at 76.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 34.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Schwaz win 3–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Schwaz higher (76.6% vs model 41.8%, 34.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Schwaz win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 30, 2026 · 18:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Schwaz 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Lauterach 32.6%
    • xG · Schwaz 1.45 — Lauterach 1.25
  2. May 30, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Schwaz 1.19 · Draw 6.76 · Lauterach 9.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Schwaz 76.6% · Draw 13.5% · Lauterach 9.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 30, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Schwaz 1.19 · Draw 6.76 · Lauterach 9.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Schwaz 76.6% · Draw 13.5% · Lauterach 9.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 30, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Schwaz win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (35 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 20:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3003365

Closing Odds 1.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Schwaz win · Schwaz 3–0 Lauterach
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Schwaz; market prices Schwaz instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Schwaz 1.45 xG vs Lauterach 1.25 → Schwaz 41.8%
  • Market: Schwaz ~76.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 28.5% · Over 2.5 71.5%); BTTS Yes (Yes 62.3% · No 37.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wacker Innsbruck 31 27 2 2 83
2 Kuchl 31 21 2 8 65
3 Seekirchen 31 19 4 8 61
4 Imst 31 18 7 6 61
5 Dornbirn 31 16 4 11 52
6 Bischofshofen 31 16 3 12 51
7 SVG Reichenau 31 14 3 14 45
8 Hohenems 31 11 11 9 44
9 Schwaz 32 13 5 14 44
10 Kitzbühel 31 13 4 14 43
11 Wals-Grünau 31 10 8 13 38
12 TSV St. Johann 31 9 5 17 32
13 Lustenau 31 8 7 16 31
14 Rheindorf Altach II 31 7 6 18 27
15 Kufstein 31 5 10 16 25
16 Pinzgau Saalfelden 31 6 6 19 24
17 Lauterach 31 5 5 21 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wacker Innsbruck 31 83 18 +65 83
2 Seekirchen 31 82 47 +35 61
3 Imst 31 68 38 +30 61
4 Kuchl 31 61 40 +21 65
5 Dornbirn 31 61 44 +17 52
6 Bischofshofen 31 58 42 +16 51
7 Schwaz 32 57 56 +1 44
8 Hohenems 31 53 49 +4 44
9 Wals-Grünau 31 53 64 -11 38
10 Lustenau 31 46 77 -31 31
11 TSV St. Johann 31 44 55 -11 32
12 SVG Reichenau 31 43 52 -9 45
13 Kitzbühel 31 42 43 -1 43
14 Lauterach 31 40 78 -38 20
15 Rheindorf Altach II 31 35 70 -35 27
16 Kufstein 31 31 49 -18 25
17 Pinzgau Saalfelden 31 24 59 -35 24
Regionalliga - West Austria. Regionalliga - West Predictions