Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - West / TSV St. Johann vs Dornbirn

Prediction Audit: TSV St. Johann vs Dornbirn Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

TSV St. Johann TSV St. Johann
May 16, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Dornbirn Dornbirn

The model missed the final outcome (Dornbirn win 0–1).

The model had projected TSV St. Johann at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 TSV St. Johann Dornbirn ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dornbirn higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dornbirn -22.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
TSV St. Johann 41.8% 22.2% +19.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 22.7% +3.0 pp Aligned
Dornbirn 32.6% 55.1% -22.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Dornbirn's win probability at 55.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 22.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Dornbirn win 0–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned TSV St. Johann; match finished Dornbirn

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on TSV St. Johann by 22.6 percentage points (64.3% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · TSV St. Johann 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Dornbirn 32.6%
    • xG · TSV St. Johann 1.45 — Dornbirn 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · TSV St. Johann 4.00 · Draw 3.91 · Dornbirn 1.61
    • Implied 1X2 · TSV St. Johann 22.2% · Draw 22.7% · Dornbirn 55.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · TSV St. Johann 4.00 · Draw 3.91 · Dornbirn 1.61
    • Implied 1X2 · TSV St. Johann 22.2% · Draw 22.7% · Dornbirn 55.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dornbirn win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 20:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1639829

Closing Odds 1.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dornbirn win · TSV St. Johann 0–1 Dornbirn
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: TSV St. Johann vs Dornbirn
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): TSV St. Johann 1.45 — Dornbirn 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 65.8% · Implied: 41.5% · Probability edge: +24.3 pts · Est. EV: +48.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 34.2% · No 65.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.9%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wacker Innsbruck 31 27 2 2 83
2 Kuchl 31 21 2 8 65
3 Seekirchen 31 19 4 8 61
4 Imst 31 18 7 6 61
5 Dornbirn 31 16 4 11 52
6 Bischofshofen 31 16 3 12 51
7 SVG Reichenau 31 14 3 14 45
8 Hohenems 31 11 11 9 44
9 Schwaz 32 13 5 14 44
10 Kitzbühel 31 13 4 14 43
11 Wals-Grünau 31 10 8 13 38
12 TSV St. Johann 31 9 5 17 32
13 Lustenau 31 8 7 16 31
14 Rheindorf Altach II 31 7 6 18 27
15 Kufstein 31 5 10 16 25
16 Pinzgau Saalfelden 31 6 6 19 24
17 Lauterach 31 5 5 21 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wacker Innsbruck 31 83 18 +65 83
2 Seekirchen 31 82 47 +35 61
3 Imst 31 68 38 +30 61
4 Kuchl 31 61 40 +21 65
5 Dornbirn 31 61 44 +17 52
6 Bischofshofen 31 58 42 +16 51
7 Schwaz 32 57 56 +1 44
8 Hohenems 31 53 49 +4 44
9 Wals-Grünau 31 53 64 -11 38
10 Lustenau 31 46 77 -31 31
11 TSV St. Johann 31 44 55 -11 32
12 SVG Reichenau 31 43 52 -9 45
13 Kitzbühel 31 42 43 -1 43
14 Lauterach 31 40 78 -38 20
15 Rheindorf Altach II 31 35 70 -35 27
16 Kufstein 31 31 49 -18 25
17 Pinzgau Saalfelden 31 24 59 -35 24
Regionalliga - West Austria. Regionalliga - West Predictions