Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - West / Pinzgau Saalfelden vs Hohenems

Prediction Audit: Pinzgau Saalfelden vs Hohenems Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pinzgau Saalfelden Pinzgau Saalfelden
May 09, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
Hohenems Hohenems

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Pinzgau Saalfelden at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Pinzgau Saalfelden Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Hohenems higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hohenems -10.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pinzgau Saalfelden 41.8% 34.1% +7.7 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 22.8% +2.9 pp Aligned
Hohenems 32.6% 43.1% -10.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Hohenems's win probability at 43.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Hohenems than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Pinzgau Saalfelden by 10.6 percentage points (52.4% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pinzgau Saalfelden 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Hohenems 32.6%
    • xG · Pinzgau Saalfelden 1.45 — Hohenems 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pinzgau Saalfelden 2.61 · Draw 3.90 · Hohenems 2.06
    • Implied 1X2 · Pinzgau Saalfelden 34.1% · Draw 22.8% · Hohenems 43.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Pinzgau Saalfelden 2.61 · Draw 3.90 · Hohenems 2.06
    • Implied 1X2 · Pinzgau Saalfelden 34.1% · Draw 22.8% · Hohenems 43.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 18:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2239127

Closing Odds 2.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Pinzgau Saalfelden 2–2 Hohenems
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: Pinzgau Saalfelden vs Hohenems
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Pinzgau Saalfelden 1.45 — Hohenems 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 62.6% · Implied: 42.0% · Probability edge: +20.6 pts · Est. EV: +37.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 37.4% · No 62.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.0%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wacker Innsbruck 31 27 2 2 83
2 Kuchl 31 21 2 8 65
3 Seekirchen 31 19 4 8 61
4 Imst 31 18 7 6 61
5 Dornbirn 31 16 4 11 52
6 Bischofshofen 31 16 3 12 51
7 SVG Reichenau 31 14 3 14 45
8 Hohenems 31 11 11 9 44
9 Schwaz 32 13 5 14 44
10 Kitzbühel 31 13 4 14 43
11 Wals-Grünau 31 10 8 13 38
12 TSV St. Johann 31 9 5 17 32
13 Lustenau 31 8 7 16 31
14 Rheindorf Altach II 31 7 6 18 27
15 Kufstein 31 5 10 16 25
16 Pinzgau Saalfelden 31 6 6 19 24
17 Lauterach 31 5 5 21 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Wacker Innsbruck 31 83 18 +65 83
2 Seekirchen 31 82 47 +35 61
3 Imst 31 68 38 +30 61
4 Kuchl 31 61 40 +21 65
5 Dornbirn 31 61 44 +17 52
6 Bischofshofen 31 58 42 +16 51
7 Schwaz 32 57 56 +1 44
8 Hohenems 31 53 49 +4 44
9 Wals-Grünau 31 53 64 -11 38
10 Lustenau 31 46 77 -31 31
11 TSV St. Johann 31 44 55 -11 32
12 SVG Reichenau 31 43 52 -9 45
13 Kitzbühel 31 42 43 -1 43
14 Lauterach 31 40 78 -38 20
15 Rheindorf Altach II 31 35 70 -35 27
16 Kufstein 31 31 49 -18 25
17 Pinzgau Saalfelden 31 24 59 -35 24
Regionalliga - West Austria. Regionalliga - West Predictions