Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - Mitte / Kalsdorf vs Wallern / Marienkirchen

Prediction Audit: Kalsdorf vs Wallern / Marienkirchen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kalsdorf Kalsdorf
Jun 03, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.51
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 54%
Wallern / Marienkirchen Wallern / Marienkirchen

The model missed the final outcome (Wallern / Marienkirchen win 2–3).

The model had projected Kalsdorf at 41.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kalsdorf Wallern / Marienkirchen ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +8.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kalsdorf 41.7% 49.1% -7.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.4% 20.0% +8.3 pp Model Higher
Wallern / Marienkirchen 29.9% 30.9% -1.0 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 28.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 20.0%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Wallern / Marienkirchen win 2–3.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.76) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kalsdorf by 8.3 percentage points (33.4% vs model 41.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 05, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kalsdorf 41.7% · Draw 28.4% · Wallern / Marienkirchen 30.0%
    • xG · Kalsdorf 1.51 — Wallern / Marienkirchen 1.25
  2. Jun 05, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kalsdorf 1.81 · Draw 4.44 · Wallern / Marienkirchen 2.87
    • Implied 1X2 · Kalsdorf 49.1% · Draw 20.0% · Wallern / Marienkirchen 30.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 05, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kalsdorf 1.81 · Draw 4.44 · Wallern / Marienkirchen 2.87
    • Implied 1X2 · Kalsdorf 49.1% · Draw 20.0% · Wallern / Marienkirchen 30.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 03, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wallern / Marienkirchen win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 58/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 06:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1826256

Closing Odds 4.44
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wallern / Marienkirchen win · Kalsdorf 2–3 Wallern / Marienkirchen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - Mitte
  • Fixture: Kalsdorf vs Wallern / Marienkirchen
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-05 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.7% · Draw 28.3% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Kalsdorf 1.51 — Wallern / Marienkirchen 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.76)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 47.9% · Implied: 30.7% · Probability edge: +17.2 pts · Est. EV: +58.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.1% · No 42.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Mitte Regionalliga - Mitte — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Voitsberg 30 26 2 2 80
2 Gurten 30 20 4 6 64
3 Oedt 30 15 10 5 55
4 LASK Juniors 30 15 6 9 51
5 Deutschlandsberger SC 30 14 9 7 51
6 Kalsdorf 30 15 4 11 49
7 Velden 30 13 7 10 46
8 SV Lafnitz 30 12 6 12 42
9 Wallern / Marienkirchen 30 12 4 14 40
10 Weiz 30 10 9 11 39
11 Wolfsberger AC II 30 9 7 14 34
12 Wohnbau Dietach 30 9 5 16 32
13 Gleisdorf 09 30 7 9 14 30
14 Treibach 30 7 3 20 24
15 Ried II 30 7 4 19 25
16 St. Anna 30 2 5 23 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Voitsberg 30 113 21 +92 80
2 LASK Juniors 30 66 44 +22 51
3 Oedt 30 62 32 +30 55
4 Weiz 30 61 66 -5 39
5 Deutschlandsberger SC 30 60 52 +8 51
6 Gurten 30 59 28 +31 64
7 Kalsdorf 30 59 53 +6 49
8 SV Lafnitz 30 55 60 -5 42
9 Velden 30 50 47 +3 46
10 Wolfsberger AC II 30 45 46 -1 34
11 Wallern / Marienkirchen 30 44 51 -7 40
12 Gleisdorf 09 30 43 72 -29 30
13 Ried II 30 41 72 -31 25
14 Treibach 30 35 71 -36 24
15 Wohnbau Dietach 30 33 57 -24 32
16 St. Anna 30 22 76 -54 11