Predictions / Football / Poland. Ekstraliga Women / Górnik Łęczna W vs Pogon Szczecin W

Prediction Audit: Górnik Łęczna W vs Pogon Szczecin W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Górnik Łęczna W Górnik Łęczna W
May 23, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Pogon Szczecin W Pogon Szczecin W

The model missed the final outcome (Pogon Szczecin W win 0–3).

The model had projected Górnik Łęczna W at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Górnik Łęczna W Pogon Szczecin W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Górnik Łęczna W; match finished Pogon Szczecin W

Market lesson

The full-time result was Pogon Szczecin W win 0–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 19:25 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Górnik Łęczna W 1.45 — Pogon Szczecin W 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Pogon Szczecin W win · 0–3
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 10:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1589292

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pogon Szczecin W win · Górnik Łęczna W 0–3 Pogon Szczecin W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ekstraliga Women
  • Fixture: Górnik Łęczna W vs Pogon Szczecin W
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Górnik Łęczna W 1.45 — Pogon Szczecin W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 34.0% · Over 2.5 66.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 72.2% · No 27.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 72.2% · No 27.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Ekstraliga Women Ekstraliga Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Czarni Sosnowiec W 22 18 2 2 56
2 Pogon Szczecin W 22 16 3 3 51
3 GKS Katowice W 22 15 3 4 48
4 Górnik Łęczna W 22 15 2 5 47
5 UKS Łódź 22 8 5 9 29
6 Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 22 8 4 10 28
7 Slask Wroclaw W 22 8 2 12 26
8 Lech Poznan W 22 7 5 10 26
9 UJ Krakow W 22 6 6 10 24
10 Akademia Piłkarska LG 22 7 2 13 23
11 Stomilanki Olsztyn W 22 3 2 17 11
12 Pogon Tczew W 22 1 4 17 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Czarni Sosnowiec W 22 68 18 +50 56
2 Pogon Szczecin W 22 60 18 +42 51
3 GKS Katowice W 22 51 26 +25 48
4 Górnik Łęczna W 22 49 20 +29 47
5 Slask Wroclaw W 22 39 33 +6 26
6 UKS Łódź 22 35 35 0 29
7 Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 22 29 34 -5 28
8 Lech Poznan W 22 29 46 -17 26
9 UJ Krakow W 22 26 37 -11 24
10 Akademia Piłkarska LG 22 24 45 -21 23
11 Stomilanki Olsztyn W 22 23 70 -47 11
12 Pogon Tczew W 22 15 66 -51 7
Ekstraliga Women Poland. Ekstraliga Women Predictions