The model missed the final outcome (Czarni Sosnowiec W win 0–4).
The model had projected Lech Poznan W at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Lech Poznan W Czarni Sosnowiec W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Lech Poznan W; match finished Czarni Sosnowiec W
Market lesson
The full-time result was Czarni Sosnowiec W win 0–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Lech Poznan W 1.45 — Czarni Sosnowiec W 1.25
-
Mar 28, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Czarni Sosnowiec W win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Czarni Sosnowiec W win · Lech Poznan W 0–4 Czarni Sosnowiec W
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Ekstraliga Women — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Czarni Sosnowiec W | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 56 |
| 2 | Pogon Szczecin W | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 51 |
| 3 | GKS Katowice W | 22 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 48 |
| 4 | Górnik Łęczna W | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 47 |
| 5 | UKS Łódź | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 6 | Rekord Bielsko-Biala W | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 7 | Slask Wroclaw W | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 26 |
| 8 | Lech Poznan W | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 |
| 9 | UJ Krakow W | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 24 |
| 10 | Akademia Piłkarska LG | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 23 |
| 11 | Stomilanki Olsztyn W | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 11 |
| 12 | Pogon Tczew W | 22 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 7 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Czarni Sosnowiec W | 22 | 68 | 18 | +50 | 56 |
| 2 | Pogon Szczecin W | 22 | 60 | 18 | +42 | 51 |
| 3 | GKS Katowice W | 22 | 51 | 26 | +25 | 48 |
| 4 | Górnik Łęczna W | 22 | 49 | 20 | +29 | 47 |
| 5 | Slask Wroclaw W | 22 | 39 | 33 | +6 | 26 |
| 6 | UKS Łódź | 22 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 29 |
| 7 | Rekord Bielsko-Biala W | 22 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 28 |
| 8 | Lech Poznan W | 22 | 29 | 46 | -17 | 26 |
| 9 | UJ Krakow W | 22 | 26 | 37 | -11 | 24 |
| 10 | Akademia Piłkarska LG | 22 | 24 | 45 | -21 | 23 |
| 11 | Stomilanki Olsztyn W | 22 | 23 | 70 | -47 | 11 |
| 12 | Pogon Tczew W | 22 | 15 | 66 | -51 | 7 |
