Predictions / Football / Spain. Primera División Femenina / Real Sociedad W vs Atletico Madrid W

Prediction Audit: Real Sociedad W vs Atletico Madrid W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Real Sociedad W Real Sociedad W
May 31, 2026 - 10:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Atletico Madrid W Atletico Madrid W

AI correctly predicted the Real Sociedad W win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Real Sociedad W Real Sociedad W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Real Sociedad W -1.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Real Sociedad W 41.8% 43.5% -1.8 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 25.6% +0.1 pp Aligned
Atletico Madrid W 32.6% 30.9% +1.7 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Real Sociedad W win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Real Sociedad W win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 31, 2026 · 18:47 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Real Sociedad W 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Atletico Madrid W 32.6%
    • xG · Real Sociedad W 1.45 — Atletico Madrid W 1.25
  2. May 31, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Real Sociedad W 2.04 · Draw 3.47 · Atletico Madrid W 2.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Real Sociedad W 43.5% · Draw 25.6% · Atletico Madrid W 30.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 31, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Real Sociedad W 2.04 · Draw 3.47 · Atletico Madrid W 2.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Real Sociedad W 43.5% · Draw 25.6% · Atletico Madrid W 30.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 31, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Real Sociedad W win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 91/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2738737

Closing Odds 2.04
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Real Sociedad W win · Real Sociedad W 2–0 Atletico Madrid W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División Femenina
  • Fixture: Real Sociedad W vs Atletico Madrid W
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-31 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Real Sociedad W 1.45 — Atletico Madrid W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 77.1% · Implied: 58.8% · Probability edge: +18.3 pts · Est. EV: +28.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 77.1% · No 22.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Femenina Primera División Femenina — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Barcelona W 30 29 0 1 87
2 Real Madrid W 30 23 3 4 72
3 Real Sociedad W 30 20 6 4 66
4 Granad. Tenerife W 30 14 12 4 54
5 Atletico Madrid W 30 14 9 7 51
6 Granada 30 13 6 11 45
7 Athletic Club W 30 12 8 10 44
8 Sevilla W 30 12 5 13 41
9 FC Levante Badalona 30 10 9 11 39
10 Madrid CFF W 30 11 4 15 37
11 Espanyol W 30 7 10 13 31
12 Deportivo de La Coruña W 30 8 7 15 31
13 Eibar W 30 8 4 18 28
14 Edf Logrono W 30 4 9 17 21
15 Alhama 30 3 5 22 14
16 Levante W 30 2 3 25 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona W 30 130 9 +121 87
2 Real Madrid W 30 65 18 +47 72
3 Atletico Madrid W 30 63 39 +24 51
4 Real Sociedad W 30 61 27 +34 66
5 Granad. Tenerife W 30 49 22 +27 54
6 Madrid CFF W 30 41 59 -18 37
7 Granada 30 36 42 -6 45
8 Athletic Club W 30 35 44 -9 44
9 Deportivo de La Coruña W 30 34 54 -20 31
10 Sevilla W 30 33 46 -13 41
11 Edf Logrono W 30 29 54 -25 21
12 Espanyol W 30 28 44 -16 31
13 FC Levante Badalona 30 28 46 -18 39
14 Alhama 30 23 78 -55 14
15 Eibar W 30 18 47 -29 28
16 Levante W 30 18 62 -44 9
Primera División Femenina Spain. Primera División Femenina Predictions