Predictions / Football / Spain. Primera División Femenina / Edf Logrono W vs Athletic Club W

Prediction Audit: Edf Logrono W vs Athletic Club W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Edf Logrono W Edf Logrono W
May 26, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Athletic Club W Athletic Club W

The model missed the final outcome (Athletic Club W win 0–2).

The model had projected Edf Logrono W at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Edf Logrono W Athletic Club W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Edf Logrono W considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Edf Logrono W +16.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Edf Logrono W 41.8% 25.0% +16.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 27.8% -2.1 pp Aligned
Athletic Club W 32.6% 47.2% -14.7 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Edf Logrono W's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.0%, a difference of 16.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Athletic Club W win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Edf Logrono W.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Edf Logrono W; match finished Athletic Club W
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Edf Logrono W by 16.8 percentage points (25.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 26, 2026 · 18:17 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Edf Logrono W 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Athletic Club W 32.6%
    • xG · Edf Logrono W 1.45 — Athletic Club W 1.25
  2. May 26, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Edf Logrono W 4.01 · Draw 3.46 · Athletic Club W 1.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Edf Logrono W 22.9% · Draw 26.5% · Athletic Club W 50.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 26, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Edf Logrono W 3.71 · Draw 3.33 · Athletic Club W 1.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Edf Logrono W 25.0% · Draw 27.8% · Athletic Club W 47.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 26, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Athletic Club W win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 5/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 22:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3483445

Closing Odds 3.71
AI Fair Odds 2.39
CLV Pending
Final Result Athletic Club W win · Edf Logrono W 0–2 Athletic Club W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División Femenina
  • Fixture: Edf Logrono W vs Athletic Club W
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-26 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Edf Logrono W 1.45 — Athletic Club W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 66.1% · Implied: 47.4% · Probability edge: +18.7 pts · Est. EV: +32.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 33.9% · No 66.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Femenina Primera División Femenina — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Barcelona W 30 29 0 1 87
2 Real Madrid W 30 23 3 4 72
3 Real Sociedad W 30 20 6 4 66
4 Granad. Tenerife W 30 14 12 4 54
5 Atletico Madrid W 30 14 9 7 51
6 Granada 30 13 6 11 45
7 Athletic Club W 30 12 8 10 44
8 Sevilla W 30 12 5 13 41
9 FC Levante Badalona 30 10 9 11 39
10 Madrid CFF W 30 11 4 15 37
11 Espanyol W 30 7 10 13 31
12 Deportivo de La Coruña W 30 8 7 15 31
13 Eibar W 30 8 4 18 28
14 Edf Logrono W 30 4 9 17 21
15 Alhama 30 3 5 22 14
16 Levante W 30 2 3 25 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona W 30 130 9 +121 87
2 Real Madrid W 30 65 18 +47 72
3 Atletico Madrid W 30 63 39 +24 51
4 Real Sociedad W 30 61 27 +34 66
5 Granad. Tenerife W 30 49 22 +27 54
6 Madrid CFF W 30 41 59 -18 37
7 Granada 30 36 42 -6 45
8 Athletic Club W 30 35 44 -9 44
9 Deportivo de La Coruña W 30 34 54 -20 31
10 Sevilla W 30 33 46 -13 41
11 Edf Logrono W 30 29 54 -25 21
12 Espanyol W 30 28 44 -16 31
13 FC Levante Badalona 30 28 46 -18 39
14 Alhama 30 23 78 -55 14
15 Eibar W 30 18 47 -29 28
16 Levante W 30 18 62 -44 9
Primera División Femenina Spain. Primera División Femenina Predictions