Prediction Audit: Atletico Madrid W vs Granad. Tenerife W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Atletico Madrid W

May 26, 2026 - 19:00

2 1.45

2 1.25

xG Accuracy: 70%

Granad. Tenerife W

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Atletico Madrid W at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Atletico Madrid W Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Atletico Madrid W	41.8%	55.1%	-13.4 pp	Market Higher
Draw	25.7%	24.6%	+1.1 pp	Aligned
Granad. Tenerife W	32.6%	20.2%	+12.3 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Atletico Madrid W's win probability at 55.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Atletico Madrid W than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
1X2: model leaned Atletico Madrid W; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Atletico Madrid W by 13.4 percentage points (55.2% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

May 26, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atletico Madrid W 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Granad. Tenerife W 32.6%
- xG · Atletico Madrid W 1.45 — Granad. Tenerife W 1.25
May 26, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atletico Madrid W 1.66 · Draw 3.72 · Granad. Tenerife W 4.52
- Implied 1X2 · Atletico Madrid W 55.1% · Draw 24.6% · Granad. Tenerife W 20.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 26, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Atletico Madrid W 1.66 · Draw 3.72 · Granad. Tenerife W 4.52
- Implied 1X2 · Atletico Madrid W 55.1% · Draw 24.6% · Granad. Tenerife W 20.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 26, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (13 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 33/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 20:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2271642

Closing Odds 1.66

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Atletico Madrid W 2–2 Granad. Tenerife W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Primera División Femenina
Fixture: Atletico Madrid W vs Granad. Tenerife W
Kickoff: 2026-05-26 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Atletico Madrid W 1.45 — Granad. Tenerife W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.6%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 44.6% · Over 2.5 55.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 58.7% · No 41.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 58.7% · No 41.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Femenina — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Barcelona W	30	29	0	1	87
2	Real Madrid W	30	23	3	4	72
3	Real Sociedad W	30	20	6	4	66
4	Granad. Tenerife W	30	14	12	4	54
5	Atletico Madrid W	30	14	9	7	51
6	Granada	30	13	6	11	45
7	Athletic Club W	30	12	8	10	44
8	Sevilla W	30	12	5	13	41
9	FC Levante Badalona	30	10	9	11	39
10	Madrid CFF W	30	11	4	15	37
11	Espanyol W	30	7	10	13	31
12	Deportivo de La Coruña W	30	8	7	15	31
13	Eibar W	30	8	4	18	28
14	Edf Logrono W	30	4	9	17	21
15	Alhama	30	3	5	22	14
16	Levante W	30	2	3	25	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Barcelona W	30	130	9	+121	87
2	Real Madrid W	30	65	18	+47	72
3	Atletico Madrid W	30	63	39	+24	51
4	Real Sociedad W	30	61	27	+34	66
5	Granad. Tenerife W	30	49	22	+27	54
6	Madrid CFF W	30	41	59	-18	37
7	Granada	30	36	42	-6	45
8	Athletic Club W	30	35	44	-9	44
9	Deportivo de La Coruña W	30	34	54	-20	31
10	Sevilla W	30	33	46	-13	41
11	Edf Logrono W	30	29	54	-25	21
12	Espanyol W	30	28	44	-16	31
13	FC Levante Badalona	30	28	46	-18	39
14	Alhama	30	23	78	-55	14
15	Eibar W	30	18	47	-29	28
16	Levante W	30	18	62	-44	9