Prediction Audit: Athletic Club W vs Deportivo de La Coruña W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Athletic Club W

May 09, 2026 - 16:00

0 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 63%

Deportivo de La Coruña W

The model missed the final outcome (Deportivo de La Coruña W win 0–1).

The model had projected Athletic Club W at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Athletic Club W Deportivo de La Coruña W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Athletic Club W	41.8%	56.9%	-15.2 pp	Market Higher
Draw	25.7%	24.4%	+1.3 pp	Aligned
Deportivo de La Coruña W	32.6%	18.7%	+13.9 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Athletic Club W's win probability at 56.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 15.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Deportivo de La Coruña W win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Athletic Club W than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
1X2: model leaned Athletic Club W; match finished Deportivo de La Coruña W

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Athletic Club W by 15.2 percentage points (57.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

May 10, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Athletic Club W 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Deportivo de La Coruña W 32.6%
- xG · Athletic Club W 1.45 — Deportivo de La Coruña W 1.25
May 10, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Athletic Club W 1.61 · Draw 3.76 · Deportivo de La Coruña W 4.91
- Implied 1X2 · Athletic Club W 56.9% · Draw 24.4% · Deportivo de La Coruña W 18.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 10, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Athletic Club W 1.61 · Draw 3.76 · Deportivo de La Coruña W 4.91
- Implied 1X2 · Athletic Club W 56.9% · Draw 24.4% · Deportivo de La Coruña W 18.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Deportivo de La Coruña W win · 0–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (15 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 24/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 10:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3041052

Closing Odds 1.61

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Deportivo de La Coruña W win · Athletic Club W 0–1 Deportivo de La Coruña W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Primera División Femenina
Fixture: Athletic Club W vs Deportivo de La Coruña W
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Athletic Club W 1.45 — Deportivo de La Coruña W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 45.8% · Over 2.5 54.2%); BTTS No (Yes 44.3% · No 55.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 44.3% · No 55.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Femenina — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Barcelona W	30	29	0	1	87
2	Real Madrid W	30	23	3	4	72
3	Real Sociedad W	30	20	6	4	66
4	Granad. Tenerife W	30	14	12	4	54
5	Atletico Madrid W	30	14	9	7	51
6	Granada	30	13	6	11	45
7	Athletic Club W	30	12	8	10	44
8	Sevilla W	30	12	5	13	41
9	FC Levante Badalona	30	10	9	11	39
10	Madrid CFF W	30	11	4	15	37
11	Espanyol W	30	7	10	13	31
12	Deportivo de La Coruña W	30	8	7	15	31
13	Eibar W	30	8	4	18	28
14	Edf Logrono W	30	4	9	17	21
15	Alhama	30	3	5	22	14
16	Levante W	30	2	3	25	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Barcelona W	30	130	9	+121	87
2	Real Madrid W	30	65	18	+47	72
3	Atletico Madrid W	30	63	39	+24	51
4	Real Sociedad W	30	61	27	+34	66
5	Granad. Tenerife W	30	49	22	+27	54
6	Madrid CFF W	30	41	59	-18	37
7	Granada	30	36	42	-6	45
8	Athletic Club W	30	35	44	-9	44
9	Deportivo de La Coruña W	30	34	54	-20	31
10	Sevilla W	30	33	46	-13	41
11	Edf Logrono W	30	29	54	-25	21
12	Espanyol W	30	28	44	-16	31
13	FC Levante Badalona	30	28	46	-18	39
14	Alhama	30	23	78	-55	14
15	Eibar W	30	18	47	-29	28
16	Levante W	30	18	62	-44	9