Predictions / Football / Spain. Primera División Femenina / Deportivo de La Coruña W vs Real Sociedad W

Prediction Audit: Deportivo de La Coruña W vs Real Sociedad W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Deportivo de La Coruña W Deportivo de La Coruña W
May 03, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Real Sociedad W Real Sociedad W

The model missed the final outcome (Real Sociedad W win 1–2).

The model had projected Deportivo de La Coruña W at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Deportivo de La Coruña W Real Sociedad W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Real Sociedad W higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Real Sociedad W -41.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Deportivo de La Coruña W 41.8% 9.0% +32.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 16.9% +8.8 pp Model Higher
Real Sociedad W 32.6% 74.1% -41.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Real Sociedad W's win probability at 74.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 41.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Real Sociedad W win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Deportivo de La Coruña W; match finished Real Sociedad W

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Deportivo de La Coruña W by 41.6 percentage points (83.4% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Deportivo de La Coruña W 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Real Sociedad W 32.6%
    • xG · Deportivo de La Coruña W 1.45 — Real Sociedad W 1.25
  2. May 03, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Deportivo de La Coruña W 10.31 · Draw 5.49 · Real Sociedad W 1.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Deportivo de La Coruña W 9.0% · Draw 16.9% · Real Sociedad W 74.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 03, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Deportivo de La Coruña W 10.31 · Draw 5.49 · Real Sociedad W 1.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Deportivo de La Coruña W 9.0% · Draw 16.9% · Real Sociedad W 74.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 03, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Real Sociedad W win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 28/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (42 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 15:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2625906

Closing Odds 1.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Real Sociedad W win · Deportivo de La Coruña W 1–2 Real Sociedad W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Primera División Femenina Primera División Femenina — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Barcelona W 30 29 0 1 87
2 Real Madrid W 30 23 3 4 72
3 Real Sociedad W 30 20 6 4 66
4 Granad. Tenerife W 30 14 12 4 54
5 Atletico Madrid W 30 14 9 7 51
6 Granada 30 13 6 11 45
7 Athletic Club W 30 12 8 10 44
8 Sevilla W 30 12 5 13 41
9 FC Levante Badalona 30 10 9 11 39
10 Madrid CFF W 30 11 4 15 37
11 Espanyol W 30 7 10 13 31
12 Deportivo de La Coruña W 30 8 7 15 31
13 Eibar W 30 8 4 18 28
14 Edf Logrono W 30 4 9 17 21
15 Alhama 30 3 5 22 14
16 Levante W 30 2 3 25 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona W 30 130 9 +121 87
2 Real Madrid W 30 65 18 +47 72
3 Atletico Madrid W 30 63 39 +24 51
4 Real Sociedad W 30 61 27 +34 66
5 Granad. Tenerife W 30 49 22 +27 54
6 Madrid CFF W 30 41 59 -18 37
7 Granada 30 36 42 -6 45
8 Athletic Club W 30 35 44 -9 44
9 Deportivo de La Coruña W 30 34 54 -20 31
10 Sevilla W 30 33 46 -13 41
11 Edf Logrono W 30 29 54 -25 21
12 Espanyol W 30 28 44 -16 31
13 FC Levante Badalona 30 28 46 -18 39
14 Alhama 30 23 78 -55 14
15 Eibar W 30 18 47 -29 28
16 Levante W 30 18 62 -44 9
Primera División Femenina Spain. Primera División Femenina Predictions