AI correctly predicted the Atletico Madrid W win.
The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Atletico Madrid W Atletico Madrid W ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid W | 41.8% | 72.7% | -30.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.7% | 17.4% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Eibar W | 32.6% | 9.9% | +22.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Atletico Madrid W's win probability at 72.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 30.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Atletico Madrid W win 4–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Atletico Madrid W higher (72.7% vs model 41.8%, 30.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Atletico Madrid W win 4–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atletico Madrid W 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Eibar W 32.6%
- xG · Atletico Madrid W 1.45 — Eibar W 1.25
-
May 03, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atletico Madrid W 1.28 · Draw 5.35 · Eibar W 9.40
- Implied 1X2 · Atletico Madrid W 72.7% · Draw 17.4% · Eibar W 9.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 03, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Atletico Madrid W 1.28 · Draw 5.35 · Eibar W 9.40
- Implied 1X2 · Atletico Madrid W 72.7% · Draw 17.4% · Eibar W 9.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 03, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Atletico Madrid W win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (31 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera División Femenina — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 30 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 87 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 30 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 72 |
| 3 | Real Sociedad W | 30 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 66 |
| 4 | Granad. Tenerife W | 30 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 54 |
| 5 | Atletico Madrid W | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 6 | Granada | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 45 |
| 7 | Athletic Club W | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 44 |
| 8 | Sevilla W | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 41 |
| 9 | FC Levante Badalona | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 10 | Madrid CFF W | 30 | 11 | 4 | 15 | 37 |
| 11 | Espanyol W | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 12 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 31 |
| 13 | Eibar W | 30 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 28 |
| 14 | Edf Logrono W | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 21 |
| 15 | Alhama | 30 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 14 |
| 16 | Levante W | 30 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 9 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 30 | 130 | 9 | +121 | 87 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 30 | 65 | 18 | +47 | 72 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid W | 30 | 63 | 39 | +24 | 51 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad W | 30 | 61 | 27 | +34 | 66 |
| 5 | Granad. Tenerife W | 30 | 49 | 22 | +27 | 54 |
| 6 | Madrid CFF W | 30 | 41 | 59 | -18 | 37 |
| 7 | Granada | 30 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 45 |
| 8 | Athletic Club W | 30 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 44 |
| 9 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 30 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 31 |
| 10 | Sevilla W | 30 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 | Edf Logrono W | 30 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 21 |
| 12 | Espanyol W | 30 | 28 | 44 | -16 | 31 |
| 13 | FC Levante Badalona | 30 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 39 |
| 14 | Alhama | 30 | 23 | 78 | -55 | 14 |
| 15 | Eibar W | 30 | 18 | 47 | -29 | 28 |
| 16 | Levante W | 30 | 18 | 62 | -44 | 9 |
