Predictions / Football / Andorra. 1a Divisió / Ordino vs Esperança d'Andorra

Prediction Audit: Ordino vs Esperança d'Andorra Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ordino Ordino
May 16, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
Esperança d'Andorra Esperança d'Andorra

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Ordino at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ordino Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ordino higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ordino -18.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ordino 41.8% 60.6% -18.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 21.9% +3.7 pp Aligned
Esperança d'Andorra 32.6% 17.4% +15.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Ordino's win probability at 60.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 18.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Ordino than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ordino by 18.9 percentage points (60.7% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 11:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ordino 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Esperança d'Andorra 32.6%
    • xG · Ordino 1.45 — Esperança d'Andorra 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 10:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ordino 1.48 · Draw 4.09 · Esperança d'Andorra 5.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Ordino 60.6% · Draw 21.9% · Esperança d'Andorra 17.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 11:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ordino 1.48 · Draw 4.09 · Esperança d'Andorra 5.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Ordino 60.6% · Draw 21.9% · Esperança d'Andorra 17.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 5/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 15:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3282799

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Ordino 2–2 Esperança d'Andorra
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1a Divisió
  • Fixture: Ordino vs Esperança d'Andorra
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 11:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Ordino 1.45 — Esperança d'Andorra 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 49.4% · Over 2.5 50.6%); BTTS No (Yes 22.1% · No 77.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 22.1% · No 77.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.0%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1a Divisió 1a Divisió — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Inter Club d'Escaldes 24 17 3 4 54
2 UE Santa Coloma 24 15 6 3 51
3 Ranger's 24 15 3 6 48
4 FC Santa Coloma 24 13 5 6 44
5 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 24 10 4 10 34
6 Penya Encarnada 24 7 3 14 24
7 Ordino 24 6 4 14 22
8 Carroi 24 4 5 15 17
9 Esperança d'Andorra 24 2 5 17 11
10 Pas de la Casa 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Inter Club d'Escaldes 24 47 24 +23 54
2 Ranger's 24 46 22 +24 48
3 UE Santa Coloma 24 45 13 +32 51
4 FC Santa Coloma 24 45 20 +25 44
5 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 24 31 26 +5 34
6 Ordino 24 27 42 -15 22
7 Penya Encarnada 24 19 41 -22 24
8 Esperança d'Andorra 24 15 47 -32 11
9 Carroi 24 15 55 -40 17
10 Pas de la Casa 3 0 6 -6 1