AI correctly predicted the Ranger's win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Ranger's Ranger's ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranger's | 41.8% | 28.3% | +13.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.7% | 27.6% | -2.0 pp | Aligned |
| FC Santa Coloma | 32.6% | 44.0% | -11.5 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Ranger's's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.3%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ranger's win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Ranger's.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ranger's more conservatively (28.4% vs model 41.8%, 13.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ranger's win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 16, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ranger's 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · FC Santa Coloma 32.6%
- xG · Ranger's 1.45 — FC Santa Coloma 1.25
-
May 16, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ranger's 3.14 · Draw 3.22 · FC Santa Coloma 2.02
- Implied 1X2 · Ranger's 28.3% · Draw 27.6% · FC Santa Coloma 44.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 16, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ranger's 3.14 · Draw 3.22 · FC Santa Coloma 2.02
- Implied 1X2 · Ranger's 28.3% · Draw 27.6% · FC Santa Coloma 44.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 16, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ranger's win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1a Divisió — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | UE Santa Coloma | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 51 |
| 3 | Ranger's | 24 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 48 |
| 4 | FC Santa Coloma | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 44 |
| 5 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 34 |
| 6 | Penya Encarnada | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 24 |
| 7 | Ordino | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 22 |
| 8 | Carroi | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 |
| 9 | Esperança d'Andorra | 24 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 11 |
| 10 | Pas de la Casa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 24 | 47 | 24 | +23 | 54 |
| 2 | Ranger's | 24 | 46 | 22 | +24 | 48 |
| 3 | UE Santa Coloma | 24 | 45 | 13 | +32 | 51 |
| 4 | FC Santa Coloma | 24 | 45 | 20 | +25 | 44 |
| 5 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 24 | 31 | 26 | +5 | 34 |
| 6 | Ordino | 24 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 22 |
| 7 | Penya Encarnada | 24 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 24 |
| 8 | Esperança d'Andorra | 24 | 15 | 47 | -32 | 11 |
| 9 | Carroi | 24 | 15 | 55 | -40 | 17 |
| 10 | Pas de la Casa | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 |
