The model missed the final outcome (Ranger's win 1–2).
The model had projected Penya Encarnada at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Penya Encarnada Ranger's ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penya Encarnada | 41.8% | 13.6% | +28.1 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.7% | 21.1% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Ranger's | 32.6% | 65.2% | -32.7 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Ranger's's win probability at 65.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 32.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Ranger's win 1–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Penya Encarnada by 32.7 percentage points (74.5% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 10, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Penya Encarnada 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Ranger's 32.6%
- xG · Penya Encarnada 1.45 — Ranger's 1.25
-
May 10, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Penya Encarnada 6.61 · Draw 4.26 · Ranger's 1.38
- Implied 1X2 · Penya Encarnada 13.6% · Draw 21.1% · Ranger's 65.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 10, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Penya Encarnada 6.61 · Draw 4.26 · Ranger's 1.38
- Implied 1X2 · Penya Encarnada 13.6% · Draw 21.1% · Ranger's 65.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 10, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ranger's win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (33 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1a Divisió — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | UE Santa Coloma | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 51 |
| 3 | Ranger's | 24 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 48 |
| 4 | FC Santa Coloma | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 44 |
| 5 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 34 |
| 6 | Penya Encarnada | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 24 |
| 7 | Ordino | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 22 |
| 8 | Carroi | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 |
| 9 | Esperança d'Andorra | 24 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 11 |
| 10 | Pas de la Casa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 24 | 47 | 24 | +23 | 54 |
| 2 | Ranger's | 24 | 46 | 22 | +24 | 48 |
| 3 | UE Santa Coloma | 24 | 45 | 13 | +32 | 51 |
| 4 | FC Santa Coloma | 24 | 45 | 20 | +25 | 44 |
| 5 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 24 | 31 | 26 | +5 | 34 |
| 6 | Ordino | 24 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 22 |
| 7 | Penya Encarnada | 24 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 24 |
| 8 | Esperança d'Andorra | 24 | 15 | 47 | -32 | 11 |
| 9 | Carroi | 24 | 15 | 55 | -40 | 17 |
| 10 | Pas de la Casa | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 |
